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Sensitivity of contact-tracing for Covid-19 in Thailand: a capture-recapture application

Sensitivity of contact-tracing for Covid-19 in Thailand: a capture-recapture application
Sensitivity of contact-tracing for Covid-19 in Thailand: a capture-recapture application
Background
We investigate the completeness of contact tracing for COVID-19 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, from early January 2020 to 30 June 2020.

Methods
Uni-list capture-recapture models were applied to the frequency distributions of index cases to inform two questions: (1) the unobserved number of index cases with contacts, and (2) the unobserved number of index cases with secondary cases among their contacts.

Results
Generalized linear models (using Poisson and logistic families) did not return any significant predictor (age, sex, nationality, number of contacts per case) on the risk of transmission and hence capture-recapture models did not adjust for observed heterogeneity. Best fitting models, a zero truncated negative binomial for question 1 and zero-truncated Poisson for question 2, returned sensitivity estimates for contact tracing performance of 77.6% (95% CI = 73.75–81.54%) and 67.6% (95% CI = 53.84–81.38%), respectively. A zero-inflated negative binomial model on the distribution of index cases with secondary cases allowed the estimation of the effective reproduction number at 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09–0.22), and the overdispersion parameter at 0.1.

Conclusion
Completeness of COVID-19 contact tracing in Thailand during the first wave appeared moderate, with around 67% of infectious transmission chains detected. Overdispersion was present suggesting that most of the index cases did not result in infectious transmission chains and the majority of transmission events stemmed from a small proportion of index cases.
COVID-19, Capture-recapture, Contact tracing, Sensitivity, Thailand
1471-2334
Bohning, Dankmar
1df635d4-e3dc-44d0-b61d-5fd11f6434e1
Sangnawakij, Patarawan
e821a2a7-a89f-4172-9006-8a6c2db9add6
Lerdsuwansri, Rattana
56aa3b31-c2d9-412d-9769-0be3831a9334
Sansilapin, Chalo
55c9ab2e-120c-420c-ab8b-a3a6e74204e3
Chaifoo, Walairat
77f5531f-b06f-4f8b-9a56-cfea39b98dfe
Polonski, Jonathan
ba3c089a-951d-4c79-994f-1dcff35ec4f8
Del Rio Vilas, Victor
c50d921c-3e60-4d8e-8a9b-29d4ee96dd3a
Bohning, Dankmar
1df635d4-e3dc-44d0-b61d-5fd11f6434e1
Sangnawakij, Patarawan
e821a2a7-a89f-4172-9006-8a6c2db9add6
Lerdsuwansri, Rattana
56aa3b31-c2d9-412d-9769-0be3831a9334
Sansilapin, Chalo
55c9ab2e-120c-420c-ab8b-a3a6e74204e3
Chaifoo, Walairat
77f5531f-b06f-4f8b-9a56-cfea39b98dfe
Polonski, Jonathan
ba3c089a-951d-4c79-994f-1dcff35ec4f8
Del Rio Vilas, Victor
c50d921c-3e60-4d8e-8a9b-29d4ee96dd3a

Bohning, Dankmar, Sangnawakij, Patarawan, Lerdsuwansri, Rattana, Sansilapin, Chalo, Chaifoo, Walairat, Polonski, Jonathan and Del Rio Vilas, Victor (2022) Sensitivity of contact-tracing for Covid-19 in Thailand: a capture-recapture application. BMC Infectious Diseases, 22 (1), [101]. (doi:10.1186/s12879-022-07046-6).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background
We investigate the completeness of contact tracing for COVID-19 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, from early January 2020 to 30 June 2020.

Methods
Uni-list capture-recapture models were applied to the frequency distributions of index cases to inform two questions: (1) the unobserved number of index cases with contacts, and (2) the unobserved number of index cases with secondary cases among their contacts.

Results
Generalized linear models (using Poisson and logistic families) did not return any significant predictor (age, sex, nationality, number of contacts per case) on the risk of transmission and hence capture-recapture models did not adjust for observed heterogeneity. Best fitting models, a zero truncated negative binomial for question 1 and zero-truncated Poisson for question 2, returned sensitivity estimates for contact tracing performance of 77.6% (95% CI = 73.75–81.54%) and 67.6% (95% CI = 53.84–81.38%), respectively. A zero-inflated negative binomial model on the distribution of index cases with secondary cases allowed the estimation of the effective reproduction number at 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09–0.22), and the overdispersion parameter at 0.1.

Conclusion
Completeness of COVID-19 contact tracing in Thailand during the first wave appeared moderate, with around 67% of infectious transmission chains detected. Overdispersion was present suggesting that most of the index cases did not result in infectious transmission chains and the majority of transmission events stemmed from a small proportion of index cases.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 11 January 2022
Published date: 29 January 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: All authors are grateful to the Ministry of Public Health Thailand for providing access to the Covid-19 contact tracing data. The authors would like to thank the Editor and referees for reviewing the manuscript and providing valuable comments. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).
Keywords: COVID-19, Capture-recapture, Contact tracing, Sensitivity, Thailand

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 454196
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/454196
ISSN: 1471-2334
PURE UUID: 8ae9e029-4128-43ae-80f6-20bbf4c4010b
ORCID for Dankmar Bohning: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0638-7106

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 02 Feb 2022 17:36
Last modified: 16 Dec 2022 02:43

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Contributors

Author: Dankmar Bohning ORCID iD
Author: Patarawan Sangnawakij
Author: Rattana Lerdsuwansri
Author: Chalo Sansilapin
Author: Walairat Chaifoo
Author: Jonathan Polonski
Author: Victor Del Rio Vilas

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