Assessing the validity of navigation risk assessments: a study of offshore wind farms in the UK
Assessing the validity of navigation risk assessments: a study of offshore wind farms in the UK
The developments of offshore wind farms can place increased pressures on conflicting marine users, particularly in already crowded waterways. Risk analysis of potential hazard scenarios are conducted by developers and regulators in the form of Navigation Risk Assessments which seek to identify, measure and mitigate impacts through data collection, consultation, modelling and risk assessment. These activities have inherent uncertainties and limitations which are rarely discussed and have the potential to undermine the value and credibility of the risk assessment. To evaluate the accuracy of Navigation Risk Assessments, their predictions are compared with the historical incident record of accidents involving wind farms. This review identifies significant methodological limitations and sources of uncertainty endemic in the Navigation Risk Assessment process which results in an over-estimation of risk. These include a lack of inclusion of historical evidence, issues during elicitation of expert judgment and methodological limitations of both quantitative risk models and the underlying risk assessment. Based on our evaluation, future research directions are highlighted to support decision makers on marine spatial planning by increasing the robustness of Navigation Risk Assessments.
Maritime risk assessment, Navigation risk assessment, Navigation safety, Offshore wind farms
Rawson, Andrew, David
2f5d38d7-f4c9-45f5-a8de-c7f91b8f68c7
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
15 March 2022
Rawson, Andrew, David
2f5d38d7-f4c9-45f5-a8de-c7f91b8f68c7
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Rawson, Andrew, David and Brito, Mario
(2022)
Assessing the validity of navigation risk assessments: a study of offshore wind farms in the UK.
Ocean & Coastal Management, 219, [106078].
(doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106078).
Abstract
The developments of offshore wind farms can place increased pressures on conflicting marine users, particularly in already crowded waterways. Risk analysis of potential hazard scenarios are conducted by developers and regulators in the form of Navigation Risk Assessments which seek to identify, measure and mitigate impacts through data collection, consultation, modelling and risk assessment. These activities have inherent uncertainties and limitations which are rarely discussed and have the potential to undermine the value and credibility of the risk assessment. To evaluate the accuracy of Navigation Risk Assessments, their predictions are compared with the historical incident record of accidents involving wind farms. This review identifies significant methodological limitations and sources of uncertainty endemic in the Navigation Risk Assessment process which results in an over-estimation of risk. These include a lack of inclusion of historical evidence, issues during elicitation of expert judgment and methodological limitations of both quantitative risk models and the underlying risk assessment. Based on our evaluation, future research directions are highlighted to support decision makers on marine spatial planning by increasing the robustness of Navigation Risk Assessments.
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AR_OREI_RiskAssessment_04_Named
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 4 February 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 February 2022
Published date: 15 March 2022
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This work is partly funded by the University of Southampton's Marine and Maritime Institute (SMMI) and the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement number: 723526: SEDNA).
Funding Information:
This work is partly funded by the University of Southampton's Marine and Maritime Institute ( SMMI ) and the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement number: 723526: SEDNA).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd
Copyright:
Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Maritime risk assessment, Navigation risk assessment, Navigation safety, Offshore wind farms
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 454730
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/454730
ISSN: 0964-5691
PURE UUID: f2842946-efb7-479b-b52c-3c007e6727e1
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Date deposited: 22 Feb 2022 17:35
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 07:08
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Author:
Andrew, David Rawson
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