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Influenza’s plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference

Influenza’s plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference
Influenza’s plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference

Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza's unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%–35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%–6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6%–2.8%). In 2020–2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3–19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2–14.0, of which 79.8%–98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019–2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4–14.4) and 10.2 (7.2–13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures.

Influenza, Mask-wearing, Mobility mitigation, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, SARS-CoV-2 interference
2095-8099
Han, Shasha
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Zhang, Ting
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Lyu, Yan
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Lai, Shengjie
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Dai, Peixi
c889c045-d2b5-4da5-b5cf-83e6166d8159
Zheng, Jiandong
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Yang, Weizhong
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Zhou, Xiao-Hua
ca773420-6ca9-419c-bc26-97e1a3f2e9cd
Feng, Luzhao
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Han, Shasha
c94abd4f-c9d7-43df-9752-537e90d66519
Zhang, Ting
a723a456-96d6-4bb8-8f29-ddc46523d3bb
Lyu, Yan
5ac2bd0b-6206-4c36-b2f2-59f8e21c5849
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Dai, Peixi
c889c045-d2b5-4da5-b5cf-83e6166d8159
Zheng, Jiandong
68959284-44e5-4cde-83eb-9b8bbd72f202
Yang, Weizhong
65d18fbc-d752-42a7-ac38-01534ceda15c
Zhou, Xiao-Hua
ca773420-6ca9-419c-bc26-97e1a3f2e9cd
Feng, Luzhao
5842cd78-bfa7-40d1-ae76-92ca4bf70c4d

Han, Shasha, Zhang, Ting, Lyu, Yan, Lai, Shengjie, Dai, Peixi, Zheng, Jiandong, Yang, Weizhong, Zhou, Xiao-Hua and Feng, Luzhao (2022) Influenza’s plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference. Engineering. (doi:10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza's unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%–35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%–6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6%–2.8%). In 2020–2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3–19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2–14.0, of which 79.8%–98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019–2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4–14.4) and 10.2 (7.2–13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures.

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Submitted date: 9 November 2021
Accepted/In Press date: 26 December 2021
e-pub ahead of print date: 2 February 2022
Published date: 2 February 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: This study was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Fund of China (82041023 and 81773546), the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (2020-I2M-1-001), the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Fund for Influenza Pandemic Response and Public Health Emergency System (2021P062QG008), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (2021P057QG006), and the Special Fund for Health Development Research of Beijing (2021-1G-3013). The funder of the study had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2022
Keywords: Influenza, Mask-wearing, Mobility mitigation, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, SARS-CoV-2 interference

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 454921
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/454921
ISSN: 2095-8099
PURE UUID: c264f09b-8b4e-4b36-bb37-4d3529d17a12
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Mar 2022 17:47
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 02:03

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Contributors

Author: Shasha Han
Author: Ting Zhang
Author: Yan Lyu
Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Peixi Dai
Author: Jiandong Zheng
Author: Weizhong Yang
Author: Xiao-Hua Zhou
Author: Luzhao Feng

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