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Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe

Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe
Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe
Reliable projections of crop production are an essential tool for the design of feasible policy plans to tackle food security and land allocation, and an accurate characterization of the long-run trend in crop yield is the key ingredient in such projections. We provide several contributions adding to our current understanding of the impact of climatic factors on crop yield. First of all, reflecting the complexity of agricultural systems and the time required for any change to diffuse, we show that crop yield in Europe has historically been characterized by a stochastic trend rather than the deterministic specifications normally used in the literature. Secondly, we found that, contrary to previous studies, the trend in crop yield has slowly changed across time rather than being affected by a single abrupt permanent change. Thirdly, we provide strong evidence that climatic factors have played a major role in shaping the long-run trajectory of crop yield over the decades, by influencing both the size and the statistical nature of the trend. In other words, climatic factors are important not only for the year-to-year fluctuations in crop yield but also for its path in the long-run. Finally, we find that, for most countries in this study, the trend in temperature is responsible for a reduction in the long-run growth rate of yield in wheat, whereas a small gain is produced in maize, except for Southern European countries.
0165-0009
385 - 405
Agnolucci, Paolo
2b9a09fe-bc65-4377-8c00-a1505abe1978
De Lipsis, Vincenzo
92ad4463-49f5-412e-b0fc-0a4497767dbe
Agnolucci, Paolo
2b9a09fe-bc65-4377-8c00-a1505abe1978
De Lipsis, Vincenzo
92ad4463-49f5-412e-b0fc-0a4497767dbe

Agnolucci, Paolo and De Lipsis, Vincenzo (2019) Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe. Climatic Change, 385 - 405. (doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02622-3).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Reliable projections of crop production are an essential tool for the design of feasible policy plans to tackle food security and land allocation, and an accurate characterization of the long-run trend in crop yield is the key ingredient in such projections. We provide several contributions adding to our current understanding of the impact of climatic factors on crop yield. First of all, reflecting the complexity of agricultural systems and the time required for any change to diffuse, we show that crop yield in Europe has historically been characterized by a stochastic trend rather than the deterministic specifications normally used in the literature. Secondly, we found that, contrary to previous studies, the trend in crop yield has slowly changed across time rather than being affected by a single abrupt permanent change. Thirdly, we provide strong evidence that climatic factors have played a major role in shaping the long-run trajectory of crop yield over the decades, by influencing both the size and the statistical nature of the trend. In other words, climatic factors are important not only for the year-to-year fluctuations in crop yield but also for its path in the long-run. Finally, we find that, for most countries in this study, the trend in temperature is responsible for a reduction in the long-run growth rate of yield in wheat, whereas a small gain is produced in maize, except for Southern European countries.

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Accepted/In Press date: 20 November 2019
Published date: 7 December 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 455007
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/455007
ISSN: 0165-0009
PURE UUID: aba2e2ff-86c3-4a11-8c19-1ef63ea94b16
ORCID for Vincenzo De Lipsis: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1728-177X

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Date deposited: 03 Mar 2022 17:42
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:09

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Author: Paolo Agnolucci

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