Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean
Aim: Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management. Location: Southern Indian Ocean.
Methods: We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 2071–2100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
Results: Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co-occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts. Main conclusions: Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian Ocean will be redistributed, with ecological, conservation and management implications.
142-159
Reisinger, Ryan R.
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Corney, Stuart
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Raymond, Ben
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Lombard, Amanda T.
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Bester, Marthán N.
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Crawford, Robert J.M.
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Davies, Delia
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de Bruyn, P. J.Nico
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Dilley, Ben J.
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Kirkman, Stephen P.
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Makhado, Azwianewi B.
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Ryan, Peter G.
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Schoombie, Stefan
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Stevens, Kim L.
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Tosh, Cheryl A.
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Wege, Mia
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Whitehead, T. Otto
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Sumner, Michael D.
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Wotherspoon, Simon
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Friedlaender, Ari S.
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Cotté, Cedric
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Hindell, Mark A.
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Ropert-Coudert, Yan
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Pistorius, Pierre A.
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29 November 2021
Reisinger, Ryan R.
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Corney, Stuart
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Raymond, Ben
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Lombard, Amanda T.
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Bester, Marthán N.
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Crawford, Robert J.M.
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Davies, Delia
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de Bruyn, P. J.Nico
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Dilley, Ben J.
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Kirkman, Stephen P.
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Makhado, Azwianewi B.
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Ryan, Peter G.
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Schoombie, Stefan
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Stevens, Kim L.
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Tosh, Cheryl A.
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Wege, Mia
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Whitehead, T. Otto
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Sumner, Michael D.
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Wotherspoon, Simon
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Friedlaender, Ari S.
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Cotté, Cedric
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Hindell, Mark A.
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Ropert-Coudert, Yan
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Pistorius, Pierre A.
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Reisinger, Ryan R., Corney, Stuart, Raymond, Ben, Lombard, Amanda T., Bester, Marthán N., Crawford, Robert J.M., Davies, Delia, de Bruyn, P. J.Nico, Dilley, Ben J., Kirkman, Stephen P., Makhado, Azwianewi B., Ryan, Peter G., Schoombie, Stefan, Stevens, Kim L., Tosh, Cheryl A., Wege, Mia, Whitehead, T. Otto, Sumner, Michael D., Wotherspoon, Simon, Friedlaender, Ari S., Cotté, Cedric, Hindell, Mark A., Ropert-Coudert, Yan and Pistorius, Pierre A.
(2021)
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean.
Diversity and Distributions, 28 (1), .
(doi:10.1111/ddi.13447).
Abstract
Aim: Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management. Location: Southern Indian Ocean.
Methods: We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 2071–2100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
Results: Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co-occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts. Main conclusions: Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian Ocean will be redistributed, with ecological, conservation and management implications.
Text
Diversity and Distributions - 2021 - Reisinger - Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine (1)
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 8 November 2021
Published date: 29 November 2021
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This work was financially supported by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF) through a SANCOR fellowship (94916 to RRR) and a SANAP grant (SNA2005060800001 to PAP), by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) through a fellowship to RRR and by WWF‐UK. The work was facilitated by the activities of the SCAR Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data project, funded by the synthesis centre CESAB of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB) and by a meeting of the expert group on “Pelagic spatial planning of the sub‐Antarctic areas of Planning Domains 4, 5 and 6,” financially supported by The Pew Charitable Trusts. ATL was supported by the NRF’s South African Research Chair Initiative. None of these institutions were involved in study design, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We are grateful to Lance Morgan and Beth Pike of the Marine Conservation Institute for providing MPA data from www.mpatlas.org .
Funding Information:
This work was financially supported by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF) through a SANCOR fellowship (94916 to RRR) and a SANAP grant (SNA2005060800001 to PAP), by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) through a fellowship to RRR and by WWF-UK. The work was facilitated by the activities of the SCAR Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data project, funded by the synthesis centre CESAB of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB) and by a meeting of the expert group on ?Pelagic spatial planning of the sub-Antarctic areas of Planning Domains 4, 5 and 6,? financially supported by The Pew Charitable Trusts. ATL was supported by the NRF?s South African Research Chair Initiative. None of these institutions were involved in study design, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We are grateful to Lance Morgan and Beth Pike of the Marine Conservation Institute for providing MPA data from www.mpatlas.org.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 455175
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/455175
ISSN: 1366-9516
PURE UUID: 8dad7576-cd22-43b3-bd5a-ee64d36e1a44
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Date deposited: 11 Mar 2022 17:43
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 04:03
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Contributors
Author:
Stuart Corney
Author:
Ben Raymond
Author:
Amanda T. Lombard
Author:
Marthán N. Bester
Author:
Robert J.M. Crawford
Author:
Delia Davies
Author:
P. J.Nico de Bruyn
Author:
Ben J. Dilley
Author:
Stephen P. Kirkman
Author:
Azwianewi B. Makhado
Author:
Peter G. Ryan
Author:
Stefan Schoombie
Author:
Kim L. Stevens
Author:
Cheryl A. Tosh
Author:
Mia Wege
Author:
T. Otto Whitehead
Author:
Michael D. Sumner
Author:
Simon Wotherspoon
Author:
Ari S. Friedlaender
Author:
Cedric Cotté
Author:
Mark A. Hindell
Author:
Yan Ropert-Coudert
Author:
Pierre A. Pistorius
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