Evaluating changes in the prevalence of female genital mutilation/cutting among 0-14 years old girls in Nigeria using data from multiple surveys: A novel Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model
Evaluating changes in the prevalence of female genital mutilation/cutting among 0-14 years old girls in Nigeria using data from multiple surveys: A novel Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model
Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is considered a public health and human rights concern, mainly concentrated in Africa, and has been targeted for elimination under the sustainable development goals. Interventions aimed at ending the practice often rely on data from household surveys which employ complex designs leading to outcomes that are not totally independent, thus requiring advanced statistical techniques. Combining data from multiple surveys within robust statistical framework holds promise to provide more precise estimates due to increased sample size, and accurately identify ‘hotspots’ and allow for assessment of changes over time. In this study, rich datasets from six (6) successive waves of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys undertaken between 2003 and 2016/17, were combined and analyzed in order to better assess changes in the likelihood and prevalence of FGM/C among 0-14-year old girls in Nigeria. We used Bayesian hierarchical regression models which explicitly accounted for the inherent spatial and temporal autocorrelations within the data while simultaneously adjusting for variations due to different survey methods and the effects of linear and non-linear covariates. Parameters were estimated using Markov chain Mote Carlo techniques and model fit assessments were based on Deviance Information Criterion. Results show that prevalence of FGM/C among 0–14 years old girls in Nigeria varied over time and across geographical locations and peaked in 2008 with a shift from South to North. A girl was more likely to be cut if her mother was cut, supported FGM/C continuation, or had no higher education. The effects of mother’s age, wealth and type of residence (urban-rural) were no longer significant in 2016. These results reflect the gains of interventions over the years, but also echo the belief that FGM/C is a social norm thus requiring tailored all-inclusive interventions for the total abandonment of FGM/C in Nigeria.
Nnanatu, Chibuzor Christopher
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Atilola, Glory
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Komba, Paul
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Mavatikua, Lubanzadio
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Moore, Zhuzhi
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Matanda, Dennis
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Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin
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12 February 2021
Nnanatu, Chibuzor Christopher
24be7c1b-a677-4086-91b4-a9d9b1efa5a3
Atilola, Glory
ca7c892b-c34d-4cb9-934c-cc666333a743
Komba, Paul
b9557da1-50df-49ed-b974-35ae1f67c072
Mavatikua, Lubanzadio
ab576ce2-be39-4a9d-bdca-0a28a02f7001
Moore, Zhuzhi
8738ed99-5a7b-4dec-b937-3c8a9a7bc3a2
Matanda, Dennis
f491c0ae-2c19-4a52-a644-acb6fc5cbcbf
Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin
ba9ab09b-f53a-4816-96f5-9f1ce721a9fa
Nnanatu, Chibuzor Christopher, Atilola, Glory, Komba, Paul, Mavatikua, Lubanzadio, Moore, Zhuzhi, Matanda, Dennis and Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin
(2021)
Evaluating changes in the prevalence of female genital mutilation/cutting among 0-14 years old girls in Nigeria using data from multiple surveys: A novel Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model.
PLoS ONE, 16 (2), [e0246661].
(doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0246661).
Abstract
Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is considered a public health and human rights concern, mainly concentrated in Africa, and has been targeted for elimination under the sustainable development goals. Interventions aimed at ending the practice often rely on data from household surveys which employ complex designs leading to outcomes that are not totally independent, thus requiring advanced statistical techniques. Combining data from multiple surveys within robust statistical framework holds promise to provide more precise estimates due to increased sample size, and accurately identify ‘hotspots’ and allow for assessment of changes over time. In this study, rich datasets from six (6) successive waves of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys undertaken between 2003 and 2016/17, were combined and analyzed in order to better assess changes in the likelihood and prevalence of FGM/C among 0-14-year old girls in Nigeria. We used Bayesian hierarchical regression models which explicitly accounted for the inherent spatial and temporal autocorrelations within the data while simultaneously adjusting for variations due to different survey methods and the effects of linear and non-linear covariates. Parameters were estimated using Markov chain Mote Carlo techniques and model fit assessments were based on Deviance Information Criterion. Results show that prevalence of FGM/C among 0–14 years old girls in Nigeria varied over time and across geographical locations and peaked in 2008 with a shift from South to North. A girl was more likely to be cut if her mother was cut, supported FGM/C continuation, or had no higher education. The effects of mother’s age, wealth and type of residence (urban-rural) were no longer significant in 2016. These results reflect the gains of interventions over the years, but also echo the belief that FGM/C is a social norm thus requiring tailored all-inclusive interventions for the total abandonment of FGM/C in Nigeria.
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journal.pone.0246661
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Accepted/In Press date: 24 January 2021
Published date: 12 February 2021
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Local EPrints ID: 456281
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/456281
ISSN: 1932-6203
PURE UUID: 5596c55b-8894-4884-8e46-defeb419ab09
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Date deposited: 27 Apr 2022 01:03
Last modified: 13 Jun 2024 02:02
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Author:
Chibuzor Christopher Nnanatu
Author:
Glory Atilola
Author:
Paul Komba
Author:
Lubanzadio Mavatikua
Author:
Zhuzhi Moore
Author:
Dennis Matanda
Author:
Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala
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