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High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints
High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.

2041-1723
Boo, Gianluca
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Darin, Edith
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Leasure, Douglas R
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Dooley, Claire A
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Chamberlain, Heather R
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Lázár, Attila N
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Tschirhart, Kevin
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Sinai, Cyrus
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Hoff, Nicole A
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Fuller, Trevon
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Musene, Kamy
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Batumbo, Arly
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Rimoin, Anne W
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Tatem, Andrew J
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Boo, Gianluca
d49f7aaa-6d95-4e36-b9be-e469911c4a3d
Darin, Edith
868fa688-2567-4dbd-aa12-3dcc91f2aa8d
Leasure, Douglas R
c025de11-3c61-45b0-9b19-68d1d37959cd
Dooley, Claire A
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Chamberlain, Heather R
cb939de7-ac47-440e-aeb8-a2e36c110785
Lázár, Attila N
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Tschirhart, Kevin
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Sinai, Cyrus
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Hoff, Nicole A
d28c06aa-5e80-4cf1-8d75-aabf98aafef6
Fuller, Trevon
ec86edd5-50da-4571-96f9-7b5bde66a882
Musene, Kamy
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Batumbo, Arly
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Rimoin, Anne W
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Tatem, Andrew J
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e

Boo, Gianluca, Darin, Edith, Leasure, Douglas R, Dooley, Claire A, Chamberlain, Heather R, Lázár, Attila N, Tschirhart, Kevin, Sinai, Cyrus, Hoff, Nicole A, Fuller, Trevon, Musene, Kamy, Batumbo, Arly, Rimoin, Anne W and Tatem, Andrew J (2022) High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints. Nature Communications, 13 (1), [1330]. (doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29094-x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.

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s41467-022-29094-x - Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 23 February 2022
Published date: 14 March 2022

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 456310
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/456310
ISSN: 2041-1723
PURE UUID: 96ff940c-ffa4-4675-9c80-248f50e64b80
ORCID for Gianluca Boo: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-4078-8221
ORCID for Edith Darin: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8176-092X
ORCID for Douglas R Leasure: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8768-2811
ORCID for Heather R Chamberlain: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0828-6974
ORCID for Attila N Lázár: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2033-2013
ORCID for Andrew J Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 27 Apr 2022 02:13
Last modified: 19 Jul 2022 02:08

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Contributors

Author: Gianluca Boo ORCID iD
Author: Edith Darin ORCID iD
Author: Douglas R Leasure ORCID iD
Author: Claire A Dooley
Author: Kevin Tschirhart
Author: Cyrus Sinai
Author: Nicole A Hoff
Author: Trevon Fuller
Author: Kamy Musene
Author: Arly Batumbo
Author: Anne W Rimoin
Author: Andrew J Tatem ORCID iD

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