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Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead
Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.

Climate, Climate change, Infection, Mathematical model, Mechanism, Statistical model
0962-8452
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
ce1431b5-f784-4552-b66c-52fcb08f095c
Walter, Katharine S.
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Buckee, Caroline O.
f4bc891c-4f42-46a6-822d-03fc1f9cd55b
Shevliakova, Elena
1b75d435-80fe-4792-b21b-29813af267d9
Tatem, Andrew J.
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Boos, William R.
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Weinberger, Daniel M.
a0ce29bf-b001-486c-ad72-97adadc4fa61
Pitzer, Virginia E.
f585e50a-7e62-4bf6-a175-d6f3795ea85f
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
ce1431b5-f784-4552-b66c-52fcb08f095c
Walter, Katharine S.
8c871fe5-f8a8-47ac-b198-949894810516
Wesolowski, Amy
343b0df8-5a2f-46e2-9f1c-001d4adf7fb1
Buckee, Caroline O.
f4bc891c-4f42-46a6-822d-03fc1f9cd55b
Shevliakova, Elena
1b75d435-80fe-4792-b21b-29813af267d9
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Boos, William R.
f9d1176d-9965-48c0-9cd6-e50e54d6cd78
Weinberger, Daniel M.
a0ce29bf-b001-486c-ad72-97adadc4fa61
Pitzer, Virginia E.
f585e50a-7e62-4bf6-a175-d6f3795ea85f

Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Walter, Katharine S., Wesolowski, Amy, Buckee, Caroline O., Shevliakova, Elena, Tatem, Andrew J., Boos, William R., Weinberger, Daniel M. and Pitzer, Virginia E. (2017) Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 284 (1860), [20170901]. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2017.0901).

Record type: Review

Abstract

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 10 July 2017
Published date: 16 August 2017
Additional Information: Funding Information: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and 2Office of Population Research, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA 3Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, and 4Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 5Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Helath, Baltimore, MD, USA 6Department of Epidemiology, and 7Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA 8NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, USA 9Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden 10WorldPop project, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK Publisher Copyright: © 2017 The Authors.
Keywords: Climate, Climate change, Infection, Mathematical model, Mechanism, Statistical model

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 456330
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/456330
ISSN: 0962-8452
PURE UUID: 9e4152c7-f6a3-4336-a03e-ed554bd1f839
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 27 Apr 2022 02:19
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:50

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Contributors

Author: C. Jessica E. Metcalf
Author: Katharine S. Walter
Author: Amy Wesolowski
Author: Caroline O. Buckee
Author: Elena Shevliakova
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: William R. Boos
Author: Daniel M. Weinberger
Author: Virginia E. Pitzer

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