From one child to two children: The opportunities and choices of the one-child generation in Jiangsu, China

Abstract

China has been in a low fertility situation similar to many industrialised societies for over two decades since the introduction of one-child family planning programme in 1979. The two-child policy was announced in 2015 to overcome the low fertility trap and the associated demographic challenges. The result following four years of implementation of the policy has not been satisfactory. The desire for low fertility continues to be popular among young people in urban areas. Their fertility intentions and choices remain key predictors of subsequent reproductive behaviour. To better understand the reproductive intentions and behaviours of the young people would be crucial for policymaking and programme intervention.
This thesis aims to investigate the fertility intentions of the young residents in Jiangsu – the one child generation, who were born since 1979, and the mechanisms underlying their reproductive decisions and family life. Existing studies tended to focus more on older cohorts’ fertility intentions and views on policies, while most of those have reached the end of their reproductive life.
Jiangsu province, with strict family planning regulations, is little explored in terms of behavioural changes after the introduction of the two-child policy. This research adopts a mixed method design by drawing on both quantitative data and qualitative data to address the research questions. Using data from 2010 Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Survey, the thesis identified the one-child generation’s fertility intentions in the one-child policy era, and the underlying associations with socioeconomic factors. Following the quantitative analysis, qualitative data were collected in two cities within Jiangsu province through semi-structured interview and focus groups. The study recruited 56 respondents, 43 females and 14 males, who shared their perceptions of fertility policy shifts, reasons for their current fertility choices and the relations between childbearing, personal career development and family life after the introduction of the two-child policy. This thesis shows that the one-child family is still favoured by the one-child generation despite the implementation of the two-child policy. Furthermore, the thesis also uncovers the mechanism underlying young people’s decision-making process, from both the socioeconomic side and family relations. It finds that concerns over costs and childcare greatly navigate young people’s fertility pathways, and gendered predicaments in family and work and intergenerational relations possibly add more risks and uncertainty to having more babies.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Shibei Ni: orcid.org/0000-0003-3629-3223

ORCID for Nana Zhang: orcid.org/0000-0002-3306-4751

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