An examination into the relationships between local area characteristics and teenage conceptions and abortions through the teenage fertility declines of the 2000s and 2010s in England

Abstract

Fertility amongst those under the age of 18 has declined across England over the last two decades, halving between 2008 and 2017. Whilst all local authorities experienced a decline in their rates, levels of fertility and the speeds of decline have varied across the country. Policymakers have stressed the links between where young women live, their aspirations/expectations, and becoming a teenage mother. This research examines the relationships between where women live and teenage conception and abortion ratio trends in England throughout this period of decline. The annual under-18 conception rates and abortion ratios for every Local Authority District (LAD) in England for 1998 to 2017 are linked to various LAD-level area characteristics to consider the relationships with area characteristics over time. A decomposition analysis quantifies the role of rising abortion ratios in the fertility decline. The Next Steps (NS) study of 14-year-olds in 2004 is linked to area characteristics; logistic regression analyses consider the relationships between area characteristics, educational expectations, and experiencing teenage conception. Although changing abortion ratios contribute to less of the decline in teenage fertility between 1998 and 2005 compared to when fertility decline was much more rapid from 2005 to 2017, abortion ratios still play an important role in the decline. Area characteristics can explain a higher proportion of variation in conception rates and abortion ratios between areas compared to the relationships between changes in characteristics with conceptions and abortions over time. Using the NS study, the variation in teenage women reporting a conception due to area characteristics can be explained by individual- and family-level characteristics. Local educational deprivation is the most predictive area-level measure for experiencing a conception as a teenager. This research highlights that, while teenage fertility has halved in England, certain area characteristics continue to be associated with local teenage conception rates, abortion ratios, and individual likelihoods of conceiving as a teenager. This research adds to the literature by including the rapid decline of the 2010s, examining newer or more detailed area measures beyond indexes, investigating abortion ratios, considering the relationships of educational expectations with area characteristics and teenage conceptions, and examining whether the associations between area characteristics and experiencing a teenage pregnancy can be explained by individual and family characteristics in a contemporary individual-level survey of teenagers in England.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Katie, Louise Heap: orcid.org/0000-0002-9210-4477

ORCID for Ann Berrington: orcid.org/0000-0002-1683-6668

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