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The influence of weather on heat demand profiles in UK social housing tower blocks

The influence of weather on heat demand profiles in UK social housing tower blocks
The influence of weather on heat demand profiles in UK social housing tower blocks
Prediction of heat demand is of distinct importance for policy planning in social housing, where residents are in higher danger of falling into fuel poverty. Understanding the behavioural response of fuel vulnerable households against weather allows generating accurate baseline energy models and estimations of energy savings. This paper evaluates weekly heat demand profiles of 462 social housing dwellings in five tower blocks in the South of the UK, monitored over two years. Linear and segmented regressions are fitted through the ‘segmented’ package in R Studio to explore the relationship between heat demand (including Domestic Hot Water and space heating) and Outdoor Temperature, generating energy signature models for each flat. Three distinct heat demand profiles are found: (i) households that do not use space heating (11%), (ii) irregular consumers, where the transition towards the heating season is not identifiable (33%), and (iii) households with marked seasonal thresholds (56%). Consumption trends as well as the effect of extremely weather events such as the 2018 storm ‘The Beast from the East’ on the heat demand are evaluated. Low consuming households show little to no variation in their demand patterns during extreme weather events, whereas higher consumers seem to reach a plateau in their demand even at extremely low temperatures. The variability of heat demand in dwellings which have identical physical properties, and are exposed to the same weather conditions, is attributed to occupant behaviour. This study highlights the heterogeneity of heat demand in social housing and the need to move away from national averages.
Baseline energy model, Energy signature, Heat demand, Regression, Seasonality, Social housing
0360-1323
Aragon, Victoria
f2a397a1-9d24-4f68-8f22-cc3270761d82
James, Patrick
da0be14a-aa63-46a7-8646-a37f9a02a71b
Gauthier, Stephanie
4e7702f7-e1a9-4732-8430-fabbed0f56ed
Aragon, Victoria
f2a397a1-9d24-4f68-8f22-cc3270761d82
James, Patrick
da0be14a-aa63-46a7-8646-a37f9a02a71b
Gauthier, Stephanie
4e7702f7-e1a9-4732-8430-fabbed0f56ed

Aragon, Victoria, James, Patrick and Gauthier, Stephanie (2022) The influence of weather on heat demand profiles in UK social housing tower blocks. Building and Environment, 219, [109101]. (doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109101).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Prediction of heat demand is of distinct importance for policy planning in social housing, where residents are in higher danger of falling into fuel poverty. Understanding the behavioural response of fuel vulnerable households against weather allows generating accurate baseline energy models and estimations of energy savings. This paper evaluates weekly heat demand profiles of 462 social housing dwellings in five tower blocks in the South of the UK, monitored over two years. Linear and segmented regressions are fitted through the ‘segmented’ package in R Studio to explore the relationship between heat demand (including Domestic Hot Water and space heating) and Outdoor Temperature, generating energy signature models for each flat. Three distinct heat demand profiles are found: (i) households that do not use space heating (11%), (ii) irregular consumers, where the transition towards the heating season is not identifiable (33%), and (iii) households with marked seasonal thresholds (56%). Consumption trends as well as the effect of extremely weather events such as the 2018 storm ‘The Beast from the East’ on the heat demand are evaluated. Low consuming households show little to no variation in their demand patterns during extreme weather events, whereas higher consumers seem to reach a plateau in their demand even at extremely low temperatures. The variability of heat demand in dwellings which have identical physical properties, and are exposed to the same weather conditions, is attributed to occupant behaviour. This study highlights the heterogeneity of heat demand in social housing and the need to move away from national averages.

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Accepted/In Press date: 13 April 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 26 April 2022
Published date: 1 July 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: This work was supported by the H2020-EEB-2016 European project [grant number 723562 (THERMOSS)]. Additionally, this work was done in partnership with Southampton City Council. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors
Keywords: Baseline energy model, Energy signature, Heat demand, Regression, Seasonality, Social housing

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 457595
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/457595
ISSN: 0360-1323
PURE UUID: c1dcb857-1d47-4fcf-9da1-de8919ee61a9
ORCID for Victoria Aragon: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6175-9454
ORCID for Patrick James: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2694-7054
ORCID for Stephanie Gauthier: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1720-1736

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Date deposited: 13 Jun 2022 16:52
Last modified: 04 Feb 2023 02:50

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