Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776–164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44–94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Ruktanonchai, Nick W
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Zhou, Liangcai
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Prosper, Olivia
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Luo, Wei
c76a8e31-38e7-47cb-bd13-670fc8ab036d
Floyd, Jessica R
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Santillana, Mauricio
3988a10d-f370-41aa-b4fe-df6b7ca0040b
Zhang, Chi
75e54093-1e0b-4db2-8cdd-5982b1dfa626
Du, Xiangjun
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Yu, Hongjie
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Tatem, Andrew J
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
17 September 2020
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Ruktanonchai, Nick W
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Zhou, Liangcai
11c9d257-1256-4d56-86a6-d5e3d8fa9f79
Prosper, Olivia
a86d2cc0-656c-493d-a6be-c8ae8e4458d2
Luo, Wei
c76a8e31-38e7-47cb-bd13-670fc8ab036d
Floyd, Jessica R
8a7cfe57-fda6-4fcf-9b0b-caee1a4abc15
Wesolowski, Amy
343b0df8-5a2f-46e2-9f1c-001d4adf7fb1
Santillana, Mauricio
3988a10d-f370-41aa-b4fe-df6b7ca0040b
Zhang, Chi
75e54093-1e0b-4db2-8cdd-5982b1dfa626
Du, Xiangjun
20efe0ad-c516-44e1-9381-0539e00217d4
Yu, Hongjie
f6a43c0c-0da8-4124-bd15-cd832d6fee7c
Tatem, Andrew J
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Lai, Shengjie, Ruktanonchai, Nick W, Zhou, Liangcai, Prosper, Olivia, Luo, Wei, Floyd, Jessica R, Wesolowski, Amy, Santillana, Mauricio, Zhang, Chi, Du, Xiangjun, Yu, Hongjie and Tatem, Andrew J
(2020)
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
Nature, 585.
(doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2293-x).
Abstract
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776–164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44–94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.
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Accepted/In Press date: 23 April 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 May 2020
Published date: 17 September 2020
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Local EPrints ID: 458220
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/458220
ISSN: 0028-0836
PURE UUID: f5898fd0-266b-4680-9bb2-360039fb8b90
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Date deposited: 01 Jul 2022 16:32
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52
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Contributors
Author:
Nick W Ruktanonchai
Author:
Liangcai Zhou
Author:
Olivia Prosper
Author:
Wei Luo
Author:
Jessica R Floyd
Author:
Amy Wesolowski
Author:
Mauricio Santillana
Author:
Chi Zhang
Author:
Xiangjun Du
Author:
Hongjie Yu
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