Optimization models for the Nile water resources system

Elshibini, Fouad Zaki (1976) Optimization models for the Nile water resources system. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.

Abstract

The problem of determining an optimal operating policy for a complex water resources system, such as the Nile and tributaries, is not presently susceptible to pure analytical treatment. In this study,' the hydrological unity of the Nile and tributaries is fully recognised, but to simplify the real world development problem, the approach followed in the analysis considers similar cool iggurations of the principal control works on each of the sub-systems of the Main, Blue and White Niles:A conceptual framework for the development problem is presented, involving the definition of the timely and untimely seasonal demand of water for irrigation. Thus seasonal demand is incompatible with the natural cycle of the Nile flow, as well as the water demand for power production. Transmission losses from the main sources of the Nile to different agricultural zones are decisive factors controlling the selection of the crop pattern in each zone. The conceptual framework defines and clarifies the planning and decision-making process associated with the Nile water resource system, and provides an approach for searching lithe policy space for optimum solutions.A computer programme is used in solving hydrological models for determining maximum capacities of long-term storage reservoirs. Three different computer programs are developed for the searching processes to determine optimal operation by varying the status level of the linear programming models, and the type of operating rules used. A dynamic programming model is developed to check the initial operating policy produced from linea: programming analysis, and to search for the optimum operation of a single multipurpose reservoir system. For the dynamic programming, a simple policy, called the standard operating volicy, is used instead of more complicated ones. The program includes the operating rule as a parameter of the system to be optimized by determining the appropriate fo.-rn fo.. he rule and appropriate values of the operating parameters.'The benefit response surface is defined by the linear programming models through the preference coefficients assigned for the units of water allocated for agriculture and for power, and through quantitative amounts of water releases and power produced by the dynamic programming modelA comprehensive linear'Progranuning - Simulation model is presented, and used for testing the feasibility of crop patterns for agricultural developments, and for determining the optimum use of water among different crops under varying production circumstances. A range of discount rates from 8% to 15% has been used in the analyses over a 40 year time horizon. The total, average and marginal net benefit per unit of water, as well as the shadow prices of water at different levels of annual water releases have been determinedIn the last chapter, the economic analysis is first used to determine the water cost resulting from large development projects, using discounting procedures. It is then applied to determine the limiting values of costs and benefits which result in a viable projectA discussion of the results obtained is given, covering the appropriate type of operating policy for large reservoirs, the structure of the crop pattern, and the economic limitation on water utilization. Some basic problems facing the approach are pointed out, and methods of overcoming them in the future indicated. A faras the subject of the Nile water development is concerned, this study may be considered as a base for establishing a research project following the new approach on systems methodology.EJ

This record has no associated files available for download.

Contributors

Download statistics