Studies in disaggregated macro modelling with special reference to the U.K.'s external trade

Stromback, Carl Thorsten (1981) Studies in disaggregated macro modelling with special reference to the U.K.'s external trade. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.

Abstract

This thesis consists of seven papers, which, although unrelated, have a common theme, in that the empirical applications utilize more information than is normally used in most macro economic modelling. The richest source of more information is when data is available not only at an aggregate level for an economy as a whole but also at the level of individual industries. There is then a more specific problem how to utilize this mass of information to improve our understanding of how an economy works. Three of the papers deal with a narrow aspect of this, whether to estimate the parameters of interest from aggregate or disaggregate (industry) data, while another paper attempts to identify the reasons behind differences in industry behaviour. Of the remaining, the common theme occurs in the estimation of import equations when data on both imports and domestic output are used, in a model of bilateral trade flows, and in a model of earnings where there are several measure os the regressand. All but one of the empirical models are restricted multivariate regression models, the exception being a paper in which the components of the covariance structure are estimated by maximum likelihood methods.

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