Forecasting and probabilistic rating of underground power cables
Forecasting and probabilistic rating of underground power cables
Underground power cables have traditionally been rated on the basis of worst case analysis. Although producing safe ratings, this results in the cables being operated significantly below their maximum current carrying capacity.
Following privatisation of the electricity industry in England and Wales in 1990, a need has arisen to operate the transmission system at a more optimum capacity. This is especially important when planning outages for maintenance.
The research presented in this thesis provides a method of forecasting cable ratings based on historic ambient temperatures and ground thermal resistivity values. Models have been produced that are based on a probabilistic approach to produce less conservative ratings. This enables a greater to be utilised for the redirection of current during the planning of maintenance outages.
Validation and results are presented that indicate that the probabilistic models produced can forecast the ratings that will be available on an on-line system. Results are also presented indicating that planning ratings can be increased by 15% in winter and 30% in summer over the existing ratings while introducing only a very small probability of exceeding the cable operating temperature limit.
University of Southampton
1996
Blackwell, Anna Kathryn
(1996)
Forecasting and probabilistic rating of underground power cables.
University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.
Record type:
Thesis
(Doctoral)
Abstract
Underground power cables have traditionally been rated on the basis of worst case analysis. Although producing safe ratings, this results in the cables being operated significantly below their maximum current carrying capacity.
Following privatisation of the electricity industry in England and Wales in 1990, a need has arisen to operate the transmission system at a more optimum capacity. This is especially important when planning outages for maintenance.
The research presented in this thesis provides a method of forecasting cable ratings based on historic ambient temperatures and ground thermal resistivity values. Models have been produced that are based on a probabilistic approach to produce less conservative ratings. This enables a greater to be utilised for the redirection of current during the planning of maintenance outages.
Validation and results are presented that indicate that the probabilistic models produced can forecast the ratings that will be available on an on-line system. Results are also presented indicating that planning ratings can be increased by 15% in winter and 30% in summer over the existing ratings while introducing only a very small probability of exceeding the cable operating temperature limit.
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Published date: 1996
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Local EPrints ID: 460303
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/460303
PURE UUID: 7f95c13e-d88a-45d5-9b0e-a392034dc7b0
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Date deposited: 04 Jul 2022 18:18
Last modified: 04 Jul 2022 18:18
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Author:
Anna Kathryn Blackwell
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