Modelling the epidemiology of barley yellow dwarf virus

Abstract

A model was developed simulating the population dynamics of Rhopalosiphum padi and the spread of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) in barley fields during the autumn and winter. The R.padi sub-system developed is a discrete-time, age-structured, deterministic, simulation model with temperature as the only driving variable. The BYDV sub-system is also a discrete-time, deterministic model but is driven by rainfall as well as by temperature. Both sub-systems were developed by fitting mathematical functions to published data, where possible. Information on BYDV epidemiology, such as aphid movement, virus acquisition and transmission, was obtained from laboratory experiments, and functions were fitted to these results also. Both sub-systems were validated against field data, collected over three years, and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Peak population numbers of aphids predicted by the sub-system closely fitted those observed early in the season but failed to predict their later extinction. The BYDV sub-system underestimated virus spread early in the season but overestimated the final incidence of the disease. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the aphid sub-system was sensitive to changes in temperature, nymphal development time and survival rates, whilst the BYDV sub-system was sensitive to changes in the latent period of the disease in the host plant and vector density. Both sub-systems have revealed areas of the BYDV epidemiology where further research is required. The research has highlighted the usefulness of systems analysis in the study of virus epidemiology.

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