The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Event history analysis : discrete-time models including unobserved heterogeneity, with applications to birth history data

Event history analysis : discrete-time models including unobserved heterogeneity, with applications to birth history data
Event history analysis : discrete-time models including unobserved heterogeneity, with applications to birth history data

Event histories are records on the durations between events which indicate transitions from one state to another. Event history models focus on the analysis of these durations. There are several situations where discrete time is the appropriate time scale. Only a modest amount of work has been done on event history models in discrete time. Different approaches for modelling event histories in discrete time are explored in this work. Some of these methods are extended to analyse observed heterogeneity by modelling covariates.

Special attention is given to unobserved heterogeneity in the risk of having an event. If unobserved heterogeneity is not taken into account, the results in the event history models are biased. In this work unobserved heterogeneity is modelled through extra-random effects. The simplest event history model in discrete time is the geometric model. Since geometric event history data can also be considered as a series of Bernoulli trials, these event history data can also be analysed through logistic regression models. Thus, unobserved heterogeneity can be modelled through random-effects logistic regression models using standard software. We compare the geometric model and two of these models, namely the beta-geometric model and the logistic-normal (-geometric) model, using simulations. The logistic-normal model can also be interpreted as a multilevel model for the analysis of hierarchically structured data.

The logistic-normal model is used to analyse Scottish birth history data. Special attention is given to the proximate determinant use of contraception, where the effects of ignoring the length of use of contraception are analysed and its implications discussed. Finally, the random-effects logistic models are applied to the analysis of the Hutterite birth history data. The Hutterites are a natural fertility population, well known for its high fertility.

University of Southampton
Egger, Peter Johann
Egger, Peter Johann

Egger, Peter Johann (1992) Event history analysis : discrete-time models including unobserved heterogeneity, with applications to birth history data. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.

Record type: Thesis (Doctoral)

Abstract

Event histories are records on the durations between events which indicate transitions from one state to another. Event history models focus on the analysis of these durations. There are several situations where discrete time is the appropriate time scale. Only a modest amount of work has been done on event history models in discrete time. Different approaches for modelling event histories in discrete time are explored in this work. Some of these methods are extended to analyse observed heterogeneity by modelling covariates.

Special attention is given to unobserved heterogeneity in the risk of having an event. If unobserved heterogeneity is not taken into account, the results in the event history models are biased. In this work unobserved heterogeneity is modelled through extra-random effects. The simplest event history model in discrete time is the geometric model. Since geometric event history data can also be considered as a series of Bernoulli trials, these event history data can also be analysed through logistic regression models. Thus, unobserved heterogeneity can be modelled through random-effects logistic regression models using standard software. We compare the geometric model and two of these models, namely the beta-geometric model and the logistic-normal (-geometric) model, using simulations. The logistic-normal model can also be interpreted as a multilevel model for the analysis of hierarchically structured data.

The logistic-normal model is used to analyse Scottish birth history data. Special attention is given to the proximate determinant use of contraception, where the effects of ignoring the length of use of contraception are analysed and its implications discussed. Finally, the random-effects logistic models are applied to the analysis of the Hutterite birth history data. The Hutterites are a natural fertility population, well known for its high fertility.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: 1992

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 461697
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/461697
PURE UUID: 5b12b566-14d3-4cd5-825f-2c353967c1f1

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 04 Jul 2022 18:52
Last modified: 04 Jul 2022 18:52

Export record

Contributors

Author: Peter Johann Egger

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×