The analysis of fertility

Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire Úna (1993) The analysis of fertility. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.

Abstract

The theme of this thesis is threefold: first, that the recently conventional emphasis on the superiority of the cohort approach to fertility measurement is mistaken and that there are statistical, substantive and measurement grounds for preferring the period perspective; second, that traditional approaches to the measurement of temporal change in fertility are inadequate and should be replaced by an approach based on the Indicators arising in period parity progression forms of analysis; and third, that for successful understanding of fertility trends through time, careful attention is needed to the measurement of fertility.

The case for the likely primacy of the period approach is developed in Chapter 1 through an examination of six classic arguments identified as favouring the cohort. These are found to be either neutral between period and cohort or to favour the period view. Together with statistical evidence from age-period-cohort and time-series models the presumption in favour of the period approach becomes strong. Nevertheless, present period measurement methods are defective, and Chapter 1 argues that the period parity progression approach to fertility measurement - developed and applied in Chapter 4 - is currently the system of choice.

Modifications to the pppr approach are discussed in Chapters 1 and 2, principally the adoption of disaggregated rates as the fundamental measures, with suggestions for summarisation that would ideally avoid synthetic cohort indicators.

Chapter 5 considers the issue of measuring fertility trends from a data-analytic perspective. A variety of approaches to exploiting maternity history information are considered. While some of these are useful and informative, the period parity progression approach emerges again as preferable, on the criterion of maximising efficiency of data-use and timeliness of the indicators generated.

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