Water resources and global warming for the Sao Francisco river in Brazil

Azevedo, Jose Roberto Goncalves De (1999) Water resources and global warming for the Sao Francisco river in Brazil. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.

Abstract

The main effects on the Sao Francisco River basin predicted for the next century are:

- For an optimistic climate prediction (+2^oC in temperature and no changes in precipitation) average flow at Sorbradinho reservoir is predicted to decrease from 2536 to 2230 m3/s (a reduction of 12%). This in turn is predicted to cause a decrease in the power generation capacity of 13% (5076 to 4406 megawatts)

- The worst climate prediction (increase of +4^oC in temperature associated with a decrease of 20% in precipitation) predicts a catastrophic reduction of 44% in mean annual discharge at Sorbradinho reservoir (from 2536 to 1420 m³/s) and a predicted decrease of 45% in power generation capacity (5076 to 2811 megawatts).

- An analysis of the effect of developing 500 000 hectares of irrigation will reduce generating capacity by 23-57% including the effects of the HadCM2 GCM climate model. Additionally, the Brazilian Government plans an inter-basin water transfer system of 70-180 m3/s. This is predicted to reduce the generating capacity by between 16.9 and 22.7%.

Adverse hydrological changes, as expected from global warming, will have serious implications for many aspects of water resources of the Sao Francisco River basin, including hydroelectric power generation, agricultural water supply, flood and drought probabilities and reservoir design and operation. The Brazilian Government and other decision-makers must take these results into account in future planning and be prepared to develop realistic policy responses.

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