Population projections of different ethnic groups in London, 1991 to 2011

Abstract

The growth of ethnic minority populations has been one of the major demographic changes in Britain in the last 50 years. However it is difficult to track the demographic changes of different communities accurately because of data limitations. Prior to 1991 there were some statistics for the migrant population, mainly from the decennial censuses. However there were few data available which allowed us to explore the demographics of ethnic minority people bom in Britain. A question on ethnic group in the 1991 Census provided the first reasonably accurate statistics for decades of the size of ethnic minority populations as a whole. Since the 1991 Census, updated estimates can be obtained from sample surveys such as the Labour Force Survey, but because of the sample size data are not available for all London boroughs nor do they provide reliable detail on individual ethnic groups, age or gender. Projected figures by ethnic group are not available at all for London boroughs yet many users require such data in order to plan for the future. This thesis fills these gaps by describing a model which projects the populations of ten ethnic groups in 33 London boroughs by single years of age and gender from 1991 to 2011, thereby producing estimates of ethnic group populations from 1991 to the present, and projected figures to 2011. Few attempts have been made within Britain to project populations of ethnic groups, and international literature on this topic is limited. The exercise is beset by a number of difficulties including the problems attached to the concept of ethnicity itself, as well as the lack of ethnic data for the different components of population change. Innovative methods have been developed in order to overcome these difficulties. The thesis contains a discussion of the concepts of ethnicity, race and nationality, and includes a full discussion of the categories and demographic characteristics of the ethnic groups in the projections model. It summarises other work on ethnic group estimates and projections, both in Britain and elsewhere. Each of the main components (base populations, fertility, mortality and migration) are explored in turn. The model itself is described in detail, and a selection of results presented. The accuracy and acceptance by users of the results are discussed, and the strengths and weaknesses of the model highlighted in order to inform modelling of this nature in the future.

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