Journey time estimation on bus routes

Abstract

Bus transit operations are impacted by increasing traffic congestion, which results in unreliable bus services and uncertain bus passenger waiting time.  Knowledge of bus journey time could provide accurate travel information through Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS) to potential and actual users, so they may make the best travel choices.  Alternatively, it enables the evaluation of the bus network for improving bus operation by the dispatcher or for local authorities’ initiatives for bus priority.

This research develops bus journey time estimation models using regression and Monte Carlo simulation methodologies, which are built on link and route bases. The data applied for formulating the proposed models were collected on several bus routes in Southampton, UK, including GPS tracking of buses and traffic data from ANPR and SCOOT.  The developed models are validated with independent field data.

The results indicated that general travel time, dwell time at bus-stops, control delay at signalised junctions, and delay of deceleration and acceleration due to bus-stop services are the major components of bus journey time.  The results showed that regression models can give an acceptable estimate of expected journey time and have the advantage of using only some major independent variables.  Monte Carlo models, which can provide information on the distribution of bus journey times due to variability caused by the fluctuation of traffic and passenger demand and signal timing, are shown to give better estimation with greater tolerance when variables have larger deviations.  Bus journey time excluding dwell time and acceleration/deceleration delay is estimated to be 1.34 times that of other vehicles’ journey time.  this study also suggested that the number of stops made by a bus along a bus route, the critical junctions which may have longer signal control delay, and boarding time per passenger are the key factors on the variability of bus journey times, and hence the potential ways to improve them.

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