Predicting suitable areas for the production of Tamarind (Tamarindus indica L.) : an underutilised fruit tree species
Predicting suitable areas for the production of Tamarind (Tamarindus indica L.) : an underutilised fruit tree species
Tamarind is a high value, multipurpose, underutilised fruit tree species which is drought tolerant and suitable for rain fed agriculture on marginal land. These characteristics make this species ideal for resource-poor farmers.
In this study the statistical modelling technique, ENFA (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis), was applied to occurrence data for tamarind derived from herbaria passport information records. This allowed the mapping of the niche of the entire species in ecological space and prediction of suitable production areas based on the species environmental requirements.
Tamarind was modelled across its entire global distribution and three continental regional subsets. The models showed tamarind to respond differently on certain variables between the global and various regional extents, resulting in different patterns in the predicted distribution. Regional models were identified as providing a better prediction than global models. Due to the semi domesticated nature of the species, it was proposed that the likely effect of the regional variation may be due to evolutionary effects in the niche characteristics; resulting in geographical subpopulations.
Localised validation with field survey data indicated that the regional models, although performing well in the cross validation may not to be locally predicting very well in all areas. Caution should be taken when using these models to predict production areas at a local scale.
The implications of selection of global or regional models in regard to modelling underutilised species distribution under climate change scenarios are discussed. The use of geo-referenced herbarium passport data with statistical modelling is recommended as a relatively simple way of predicting the distribution/potential production areas for large numbers of underutilised crops, or any crop species with limited or no eco-physiological, empirical yield information.
University of Southampton
Bowe, Colm
b771db21-8436-4645-81f6-2e9a9ddd4e18
2007
Bowe, Colm
b771db21-8436-4645-81f6-2e9a9ddd4e18
Bowe, Colm
(2007)
Predicting suitable areas for the production of Tamarind (Tamarindus indica L.) : an underutilised fruit tree species.
University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis.
Record type:
Thesis
(Doctoral)
Abstract
Tamarind is a high value, multipurpose, underutilised fruit tree species which is drought tolerant and suitable for rain fed agriculture on marginal land. These characteristics make this species ideal for resource-poor farmers.
In this study the statistical modelling technique, ENFA (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis), was applied to occurrence data for tamarind derived from herbaria passport information records. This allowed the mapping of the niche of the entire species in ecological space and prediction of suitable production areas based on the species environmental requirements.
Tamarind was modelled across its entire global distribution and three continental regional subsets. The models showed tamarind to respond differently on certain variables between the global and various regional extents, resulting in different patterns in the predicted distribution. Regional models were identified as providing a better prediction than global models. Due to the semi domesticated nature of the species, it was proposed that the likely effect of the regional variation may be due to evolutionary effects in the niche characteristics; resulting in geographical subpopulations.
Localised validation with field survey data indicated that the regional models, although performing well in the cross validation may not to be locally predicting very well in all areas. Caution should be taken when using these models to predict production areas at a local scale.
The implications of selection of global or regional models in regard to modelling underutilised species distribution under climate change scenarios are discussed. The use of geo-referenced herbarium passport data with statistical modelling is recommended as a relatively simple way of predicting the distribution/potential production areas for large numbers of underutilised crops, or any crop species with limited or no eco-physiological, empirical yield information.
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Published date: 2007
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Local EPrints ID: 466413
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/466413
PURE UUID: 76edd650-775c-4301-ba15-ee82a6855fbc
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Date deposited: 05 Jul 2022 05:15
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 20:41
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Author:
Colm Bowe
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