Trends in asthma incidence in children: a UK population-based cohort study

Kallis, Constantinos, Morgan, Ann, Maslova, Ekaterina, Van der Valk, Ralf, Tran, Trung N., Sinha, Ian P., Roberts, Graham and Quint, Jennifer K. (2021) Trends in asthma incidence in children: a UK population-based cohort study. European Respiratory Journal, 58. (doi:10.1183/13993003.congress-2021.OA74).

Abstract

Background: Evidence suggests that asthma incidence has steadily declined in the past decade, especially in children. These trends have not been thoroughly explored across age groups in the UK.

Aim: To quantify recent trends in asthma incidence in a UK paediatric population using a large population-based cohort.

Methods: We identified 498,503 new asthma cases in patients aged 1-17 years contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database from 1/1/07-31/12/19. We calculated annual asthma incidence rates for 3 different age groups (1-5, 6-11, 12-17), stratified by gender.

Results: Overall annual incidence rate fell continuously from 1,470 (95% CI;1449–1490) in 2007 to 634 (623–645) per 105 person years (pys) in 2019 (57% decline). Decline was similar between genders. The most pronounced decrease was in the 1-5 age group (Fig), in whom incidence dropped from 2813 (2762–2864) to 759 (735–783) per 105 pys (73% decline). The corresponding data for the 6-11 and 12-17 age group were 1156 (1126 – 1187) to 727 (707 – 747) (37% decline) and 550 (529 – 573) to 430 (415 – 447) (22% decline) per 105 pys, respectively.

Conclusion: The rate of new asthma diagnosis has fallen substantially in UK children since 2007. The pronounced decline in the 1-5 age group may be due to a change in diagnostic criteria for wheeze and asthma. Whilst there was some decrease in the 6-11 age group, incidence in 12-17year olds was relatively stable.

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Contributors

Author: Graham Roberts

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