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Updatable probabilistic evaluation of failure rates of mechanical components in power take-off systems of tidal stream turbines

Updatable probabilistic evaluation of failure rates of mechanical components in power take-off systems of tidal stream turbines
Updatable probabilistic evaluation of failure rates of mechanical components in power take-off systems of tidal stream turbines
This paper presents a method for the probabilistic evaluation of the failure rates of mechanical components in a typical power take-off (PTO) system of a horizontal-axis tidal stream turbine (HATT). The method is based on a modification of the method of the influence factors, when base failure rates, relevant influence factors and, subsequently, resulting failure rates are treated as random variables. The prior (i.e., initial) probabilistic distribution of the failure rates of a HATT component is generated using data for similar components from other industries, while taking into account actual characteristics of the component and site-specific operating and environmental conditions of the HATT. A posterior distribution of the failure rate is estimated numerically based on a Bayesian approach as new information about the component performance in an operating HATT becomes available. The posterior distribution is then employed to obtain the updated mean and lower and upper confidence limits of the failure rate. The proposed method is illustrated by applying it to the evaluation of the failure rates of two key components of the PTO system of a typical HATT—main seal and main bearing. In particular, it is shown that uncertainty associated with the method itself has a major influence on the failure rate evaluation. The proposed method is useful for the reliability assessment of both PTO designs of new HATTs and PTO systems of operating HATTs.
reliability, mechanical components, tidal stream turbine, failure rate, probabilistic analysis, Bayesian analysis
1996-1073
Val, Dimitri V.
6b622b53-6081-406b-b85e-d03d2839d18d
Chernin, Leon
d722176b-b36a-4273-b6d1-60cefb05f5b6
Yurchenko, Daniil
51a2896b-281e-4977-bb72-5f96e891fbf8
Val, Dimitri V.
6b622b53-6081-406b-b85e-d03d2839d18d
Chernin, Leon
d722176b-b36a-4273-b6d1-60cefb05f5b6
Yurchenko, Daniil
51a2896b-281e-4977-bb72-5f96e891fbf8

Val, Dimitri V., Chernin, Leon and Yurchenko, Daniil (2021) Updatable probabilistic evaluation of failure rates of mechanical components in power take-off systems of tidal stream turbines. Energies, 14 (20), [6586]. (doi:10.3390/en14206586).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper presents a method for the probabilistic evaluation of the failure rates of mechanical components in a typical power take-off (PTO) system of a horizontal-axis tidal stream turbine (HATT). The method is based on a modification of the method of the influence factors, when base failure rates, relevant influence factors and, subsequently, resulting failure rates are treated as random variables. The prior (i.e., initial) probabilistic distribution of the failure rates of a HATT component is generated using data for similar components from other industries, while taking into account actual characteristics of the component and site-specific operating and environmental conditions of the HATT. A posterior distribution of the failure rate is estimated numerically based on a Bayesian approach as new information about the component performance in an operating HATT becomes available. The posterior distribution is then employed to obtain the updated mean and lower and upper confidence limits of the failure rate. The proposed method is illustrated by applying it to the evaluation of the failure rates of two key components of the PTO system of a typical HATT—main seal and main bearing. In particular, it is shown that uncertainty associated with the method itself has a major influence on the failure rate evaluation. The proposed method is useful for the reliability assessment of both PTO designs of new HATTs and PTO systems of operating HATTs.

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Accepted/In Press date: 11 October 2021
Published date: 13 October 2021
Keywords: reliability, mechanical components, tidal stream turbine, failure rate, probabilistic analysis, Bayesian analysis

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 468149
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/468149
ISSN: 1996-1073
PURE UUID: 4d6d4cdc-b36b-4069-baef-8142e275dd97
ORCID for Daniil Yurchenko: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-4989-3634

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Date deposited: 04 Aug 2022 16:31
Last modified: 23 Feb 2023 03:26

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Contributors

Author: Dimitri V. Val
Author: Leon Chernin
Author: Daniil Yurchenko ORCID iD

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