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Prediction Markets: A Study on the Taiwan Experience

Prediction Markets: A Study on the Taiwan Experience
Prediction Markets: A Study on the Taiwan Experience
Among all Asian countries, Taiwan is probably the first one to have her own prediction markets. From the early 2000s to the mid-2000s, three prediction markets were established one after the other in Taiwan. This happened a few years before the first political prediction market in Japan, General Election Hatena, which was established in 2005 by Hatena Co.,1 and the first prediction market in New Zealand, ipredict, which was established in 2008 by Victoria University of Wellington and the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR).2 In this section, we shall give a brief introduction to the Taiwan prediction markets, their history, operation, research and publications. The Taiwan Political Exchange (TAIPEX) was established in 2003 at the Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica in Taipei. Since then it has functioned several times to predict many important political events, including both the US and Taiwan presidential elections in 2004 (Wang et al., 2004, 2006, 2009).3 The AI-ECON Futures Exchange (AI-ECON FX) was established in 2006 at the AIECON Research Center, National Chengchi University in Taipei.4 It was established in an attempt to integrate agent-based computational economics and experimental economics as an initial step to further overarch computational social sciences with experimental social sciences (Chen and Tai, 2006; Barr et al., 2008). This project was sponsored by the National Science Council for three years from the middle of 2006 to the middle of 2009. AI-ECON FX has been applied to predict the opening day of the high speed railway in Taiwan. In November 2006 both TAIPEX and AI-ECON FX were run in parallel to predict the Taipei and Kaohsiung City mayoral elections (Chen and Wu, 2009).5
137-156
Routledge
Tung, Chen-Yuan
3a1e8441-3e0e-4577-9b88-dbeeb041707b
Tai, Chung-Ching
b3370b23-7410-4254-99bc-6711046e1095
Chou, Tzu-Chuan
cacfbcfc-7174-4992-8560-d2203cb51c91
Wang, Shu G.
148fc79e-ea39-491b-873c-947852088019
Chie, Bin-Tzong
18087e56-b5c4-4dd5-823b-295ab28e7f10
Chen, Shu-Heng
13f75ac4-9eeb-4601-b72a-edb0784d112b
Williams, Leighton Vaugham
Tung, Chen-Yuan
3a1e8441-3e0e-4577-9b88-dbeeb041707b
Tai, Chung-Ching
b3370b23-7410-4254-99bc-6711046e1095
Chou, Tzu-Chuan
cacfbcfc-7174-4992-8560-d2203cb51c91
Wang, Shu G.
148fc79e-ea39-491b-873c-947852088019
Chie, Bin-Tzong
18087e56-b5c4-4dd5-823b-295ab28e7f10
Chen, Shu-Heng
13f75ac4-9eeb-4601-b72a-edb0784d112b
Williams, Leighton Vaugham

Tung, Chen-Yuan, Tai, Chung-Ching, Chou, Tzu-Chuan, Wang, Shu G., Chie, Bin-Tzong and Chen, Shu-Heng (2011) Prediction Markets: A Study on the Taiwan Experience. In, Williams, Leighton Vaugham (ed.) Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications. Routledge, pp. 137-156. (doi:10.4324/9780203815526).

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

Among all Asian countries, Taiwan is probably the first one to have her own prediction markets. From the early 2000s to the mid-2000s, three prediction markets were established one after the other in Taiwan. This happened a few years before the first political prediction market in Japan, General Election Hatena, which was established in 2005 by Hatena Co.,1 and the first prediction market in New Zealand, ipredict, which was established in 2008 by Victoria University of Wellington and the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR).2 In this section, we shall give a brief introduction to the Taiwan prediction markets, their history, operation, research and publications. The Taiwan Political Exchange (TAIPEX) was established in 2003 at the Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica in Taipei. Since then it has functioned several times to predict many important political events, including both the US and Taiwan presidential elections in 2004 (Wang et al., 2004, 2006, 2009).3 The AI-ECON Futures Exchange (AI-ECON FX) was established in 2006 at the AIECON Research Center, National Chengchi University in Taipei.4 It was established in an attempt to integrate agent-based computational economics and experimental economics as an initial step to further overarch computational social sciences with experimental social sciences (Chen and Tai, 2006; Barr et al., 2008). This project was sponsored by the National Science Council for three years from the middle of 2006 to the middle of 2009. AI-ECON FX has been applied to predict the opening day of the high speed railway in Taiwan. In November 2006 both TAIPEX and AI-ECON FX were run in parallel to predict the Taipei and Kaohsiung City mayoral elections (Chen and Wu, 2009).5

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e-pub ahead of print date: 15 May 2011

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 468211
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/468211
PURE UUID: 256b02e0-8e7b-452d-a79f-d4365b82e832
ORCID for Chung-Ching Tai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2557-177X

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Date deposited: 05 Aug 2022 16:51
Last modified: 06 Aug 2022 02:00

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Contributors

Author: Chen-Yuan Tung
Author: Chung-Ching Tai ORCID iD
Author: Tzu-Chuan Chou
Author: Shu G. Wang
Author: Bin-Tzong Chie
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Editor: Leighton Vaugham Williams

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