Conceptualisation and analysis of migration uncertainty: insights from macroeconomics

Barker, Emily and Bijak, Jakub (2020) Conceptualisation and analysis of migration uncertainty: insights from macroeconomics

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a background discussion and a proposal of methods for
quantifying migration-associated uncertainty across a range of time horizons, which cover both prediction and scenarios of migration in the mid- to long-term, as well as early warning systems in the short term. Following a brief review of the state of the art in forward-looking migration studies, we explore the analytical possibilities offered here by macroeconomic approaches, such as the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. While such models have been used to model the impacts of migration on the wider economy, we propose to look at their potential in addressing the influence of drivers on migration flows, with particular focus on the reactions of migration to economic and political shocks. Even though both the methods and presented examples are mainly macroeconomic, given their origins and most of the literature base, the usefulness of the approach for setting migration scenarios under uncertainty and for constructing early warning systems goes beyond economic applications. We argue that such models can serve as a blueprint for modelling complex macro-level migration processes, with explicitly acknowledged micro-foundations and uncertainty.

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