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Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 within and beyond China in early 2020

Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 within and beyond China in early 2020
Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 within and beyond China in early 2020

A novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan in late 2019 and has caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic announced by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 12, 2020. This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread within and beyond China at the early stage of the pandemic. A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data. We found that the cordon sanitaire of Wuhan was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city, with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% uncertainty interval: 478–1,349) had COVID-19 infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of Chinese maniland during the two weeks prior to the city's lockdown. Most of these destinations were located in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Australia were also prominent, with a strong correlation seen between the predicted risks of importation and the number of imported cases found. Given the limited understanding of emerging infectious diseases in the very early stages of outbreaks, our approaches and findings in assessing travel patterns and risk of transmission can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design for new COVID-19 waves caused by variants of concern and future pandemics to effectively limit transmission beyond its initial extent.

Air travel, COVID-19, Human mobility, Mobile phone, Pandemic
2666-7649
212-218
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Bogoch, Isaac I.
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Watts, Alexander
5df8bdd8-10e6-4dfd-af50-e2719bb112a2
Lu, Xin
a681bac0-d6d1-4e8e-a642-4ce42ae2cc9d
Yang, Weizhong
ae260342-6670-4446-8ffd-c49a334c0647
Yu, Hongjie
7921cb68-f4a2-4128-8406-eb0f6872bae7
Khan, Kamran
cf32847f-7b3b-4468-b786-5d7c144f290a
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Bogoch, Isaac I.
2f25f533-9b71-483b-8100-17647ba0926b
Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Watts, Alexander
5df8bdd8-10e6-4dfd-af50-e2719bb112a2
Lu, Xin
a681bac0-d6d1-4e8e-a642-4ce42ae2cc9d
Yang, Weizhong
ae260342-6670-4446-8ffd-c49a334c0647
Yu, Hongjie
7921cb68-f4a2-4128-8406-eb0f6872bae7
Khan, Kamran
cf32847f-7b3b-4468-b786-5d7c144f290a
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e

Lai, Shengjie, Bogoch, Isaac I., Ruktanonchai, Nick W., Watts, Alexander, Lu, Xin, Yang, Weizhong, Yu, Hongjie, Khan, Kamran and Tatem, Andrew J. (2022) Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 within and beyond China in early 2020. Data Science and Management, 5 (4), 212-218. (doi:10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.004).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan in late 2019 and has caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic announced by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 12, 2020. This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread within and beyond China at the early stage of the pandemic. A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data. We found that the cordon sanitaire of Wuhan was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city, with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% uncertainty interval: 478–1,349) had COVID-19 infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of Chinese maniland during the two weeks prior to the city's lockdown. Most of these destinations were located in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the U.S. and Australia were also prominent, with a strong correlation seen between the predicted risks of importation and the number of imported cases found. Given the limited understanding of emerging infectious diseases in the very early stages of outbreaks, our approaches and findings in assessing travel patterns and risk of transmission can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design for new COVID-19 waves caused by variants of concern and future pandemics to effectively limit transmission beyond its initial extent.

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Submitted date: 16 March 2022
Accepted/In Press date: 19 August 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 26 August 2022
Published date: December 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: Ethical clearance for collecting and using secondary data in this study was granted by the institutional review board of the University of Southampton (No. 48002). All data were supplied and analysed in an anonymous format, without access to personal identifying information.We thank Baidu Inc. and IATA prodiving the data. We also thank staff members at disease control institutions, hospitals, and health administrations across China where outbreaks occurred for field investigation, administration, and data collection. This study was supported by the grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant Nos.: INV-024911 and OPP1134076); the European Union Horizon 2020 (Grant No.: MOOD 874850); the National Natural Science Fund of China (Grant Nos.: 81773498, 71771213 and 91846301); National Science and Technology Major Project of China (Grant No.: 2016ZX10004222-009); Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader (Grant No.: 18XD1400300); Hunan Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant Nos.: 2017RS3040 and 2018JJ1034). AJT is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant Nos.: OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1134076, and OPP1094793), the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Wellcome Trust (Grant Nos.: 106866/Z/15/Z and 204613/Z/16/Z). HY is supported by funding from the National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No.: 81525023); Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader (Grant No.: 18XD1400300); and the United States National Institutes of Health (Comprehensive International Program for Research on AIDS grant U19 AI51915). The research team members were independent from the funding agencies. The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; the collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and the preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript. Funding Information: We thank Baidu Inc. and IATA prodiving the data. We also thank staff members at disease control institutions, hospitals, and health administrations across China where outbreaks occurred for field investigation, administration, and data collection. This study was supported by the grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant Nos.: INV-024911 and OPP1134076 ); the European Union Horizon 2020 (Grant No.: MOOD 874850 ); the National Natural Science Fund of China (Grant Nos.: 81773498 , 71771213 and 91846301 ); National Science and Technology Major Project of China (Grant No.: 2016ZX10004222-009 ); Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader (Grant No.: 18XD1400300 ); Hunan Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant Nos.: 2017RS3040 and 2018JJ1034 ). AJT is supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant Nos.: OPP1106427 , OPP1032350 , OPP1134076 , and OPP1094793 ), the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Wellcome Trust (Grant Nos.: 106866/Z/15/Z and 204613/Z/16/Z ). HY is supported by funding from the National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No.: 81525023 ); Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader (Grant No.: 18XD1400300 ); and the United States National Institutes of Health (Comprehensive International Program for Research on AIDS grant U19 AI51915 ). The research team members were independent from the funding agencies. The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; the collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and the preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Xi'an Jiaotong University
Keywords: Air travel, COVID-19, Human mobility, Mobile phone, Pandemic

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 470282
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/470282
ISSN: 2666-7649
PURE UUID: 9b516c60-da9c-4b99-a86a-81efc6f8e4c3
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Oct 2022 16:48
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52

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Contributors

Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Isaac I. Bogoch
Author: Nick W. Ruktanonchai
Author: Alexander Watts
Author: Xin Lu
Author: Weizhong Yang
Author: Hongjie Yu
Author: Kamran Khan
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD

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