Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affected countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? We propose a lower bound estimator for the true number of Monkeypox cases. The estimator is data-driven and can be easily computed from the cumulative distributions of weekly cases. We focused on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases on July 31, 2022: The proportion of undetected cases was relevant in all countries, with countries whose estimated true number of infections could be more than three times the observed one. We provided a practical contribution to the understanding of the current Monkeypox wave and reliable estimates on how many undetected cases are going around in several countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.
Monkeypox, asymptomatic cases, capture–recapture methods, incidence indicators
Maruotti, Antonello
53159118-f31e-4f3e-b812-dff432d74229
Böhning, Dankmar
1df635d4-e3dc-44d0-b61d-5fd11f6434e1
Rocchetti, Irene
8e3b8dda-a55f-4a4e-b2e6-0c488ecb883d
Ciccozzi, Massimo
e10fa97e-c253-4736-89f2-fc45e282fccd
6 September 2022
Maruotti, Antonello
53159118-f31e-4f3e-b812-dff432d74229
Böhning, Dankmar
1df635d4-e3dc-44d0-b61d-5fd11f6434e1
Rocchetti, Irene
8e3b8dda-a55f-4a4e-b2e6-0c488ecb883d
Ciccozzi, Massimo
e10fa97e-c253-4736-89f2-fc45e282fccd
Maruotti, Antonello, Böhning, Dankmar, Rocchetti, Irene and Ciccozzi, Massimo
(2022)
Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak.
Journal of Medical Virology, 95 (1), [e28099].
(doi:10.1002/jmv.28099).
Abstract
While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affected countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? We propose a lower bound estimator for the true number of Monkeypox cases. The estimator is data-driven and can be easily computed from the cumulative distributions of weekly cases. We focused on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases on July 31, 2022: The proportion of undetected cases was relevant in all countries, with countries whose estimated true number of infections could be more than three times the observed one. We provided a practical contribution to the understanding of the current Monkeypox wave and reliable estimates on how many undetected cases are going around in several countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.
Text
Journal of Medical Virology - 2022 - Maruotti - Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 24 August 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 August 2022
Published date: 6 September 2022
Additional Information:
Funding Information: Open Access Funding provided by Libera Universita Maria Santissima Assunta within the CRUI-CARE Agreement.
Keywords:
Monkeypox, asymptomatic cases, capture–recapture methods, incidence indicators
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 470298
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/470298
ISSN: 0146-6615
PURE UUID: 5040ff43-02c1-4a4b-bc86-ebef6f49eb17
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Date deposited: 05 Oct 2022 16:58
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:25
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Contributors
Author:
Antonello Maruotti
Author:
Irene Rocchetti
Author:
Massimo Ciccozzi
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