The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline
The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline
The temporal clustering of storms presents consecutive storm surge and wave hazards that can lead to amplified flood and erosional damages; thus, clustering is important for coastal stakeholders to consider. We analyse the prevalence of storm clustering around the UK coastline by examining the temporal and spatial characteristics of storm surge, wave height, and high still sea level exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels. First, at the interannual timescale, we show that there are periods of high/low exceedance counts on national and regional scales. Elevated annual counts of exceedances with smaller magnitudes can occur without a respective signal of higher-magnitude exceedances. Secondly, at the intra-annual timescale, we show that high proportions of exceedances are clustering over short timescales. Storm surge, wave height and still sea level exceedances occurring < 50 days after the prior exceedance at a given site account for between ~ 35–44% and ~ 15–22% of all exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels, respectively. Still sea levels have the highest proportion of exceedances clustered in quick succession, with ~ 25% of 1 in 1-year exceedances occurring < 2 days after the previous at the same site. Spatially, for UK storm surges and still sea levels, the North Sea has the lowest proportion of clustering, whereas the North Atlantic and Bristol Channel have the highest. For English wave records, the highest proportions of clustering are found in the North Sea for exceedances of a lower magnitude and the English Channel for exceedances of a higher magnitude. These findings illuminate the prevalence of the clustering of coastal hazards around the UK—helping coastal stakeholders evaluate the threat of surges, waves, and sea levels clustering over short periods.
Sea level rise, Seasonal extremes, Storm clustering, Surge and wave hazards, UK coastal management
Jenkins, Luke Joe
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Haigh, Ivan
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Camus Brana, Paula
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Pender, Douglas
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Sansom, Jenny
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Lamb, Rob
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Kassem, Hachem
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1 October 2022
Jenkins, Luke Joe
a306cf57-8510-40b6-8aa0-96910f21807b
Haigh, Ivan
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Camus Brana, Paula
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Pender, Douglas
158f5e08-79de-4f08-82b8-f2fac8f8c600
Sansom, Jenny
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Lamb, Rob
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Kassem, Hachem
658efa7a-a02c-4b29-9d07-5d57e95a4b51
Jenkins, Luke Joe, Haigh, Ivan, Camus Brana, Paula, Pender, Douglas, Sansom, Jenny, Lamb, Rob and Kassem, Hachem
(2022)
The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline.
Natural Hazards.
(doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05617-z).
Abstract
The temporal clustering of storms presents consecutive storm surge and wave hazards that can lead to amplified flood and erosional damages; thus, clustering is important for coastal stakeholders to consider. We analyse the prevalence of storm clustering around the UK coastline by examining the temporal and spatial characteristics of storm surge, wave height, and high still sea level exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels. First, at the interannual timescale, we show that there are periods of high/low exceedance counts on national and regional scales. Elevated annual counts of exceedances with smaller magnitudes can occur without a respective signal of higher-magnitude exceedances. Secondly, at the intra-annual timescale, we show that high proportions of exceedances are clustering over short timescales. Storm surge, wave height and still sea level exceedances occurring < 50 days after the prior exceedance at a given site account for between ~ 35–44% and ~ 15–22% of all exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels, respectively. Still sea levels have the highest proportion of exceedances clustered in quick succession, with ~ 25% of 1 in 1-year exceedances occurring < 2 days after the previous at the same site. Spatially, for UK storm surges and still sea levels, the North Sea has the lowest proportion of clustering, whereas the North Atlantic and Bristol Channel have the highest. For English wave records, the highest proportions of clustering are found in the North Sea for exceedances of a lower magnitude and the English Channel for exceedances of a higher magnitude. These findings illuminate the prevalence of the clustering of coastal hazards around the UK—helping coastal stakeholders evaluate the threat of surges, waves, and sea levels clustering over short periods.
Text
s11069-022-05617-z
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 10 September 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 1 October 2022
Published date: 1 October 2022
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
LJJ is funded through the INSPIRE Doctoral Training Partnership by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/S007210/1), and co-sponsored by the JBA Trust. IDH and PC’s time was funded via the NERC funded CHANCE project (NE/S010262/1).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
Keywords:
Sea level rise, Seasonal extremes, Storm clustering, Surge and wave hazards, UK coastal management
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 470561
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/470561
ISSN: 0921-030X
PURE UUID: f0f901f1-4595-4996-84be-523e7a851321
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Date deposited: 13 Oct 2022 16:31
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:03
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Author:
Douglas Pender
Author:
Jenny Sansom
Author:
Rob Lamb
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