Modeling of waiting lists for chronic heart failure in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
Modeling of waiting lists for chronic heart failure in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted access to health services globally for patients with non-Covid-19 conditions. We consider the condition of heart failure and describe a discrete event simulation model built to describe the impact of the pandemic and associated societal lockdowns on access to diagnosis procedures. The number of patients diagnosed with heart failure fell during the pandemic and in the UK, the number of GP referrals for diagnostic tests in November 2020 were at 20% of their pre-pandemic levels. While the numbers in the system have fallen clinicians believe that this is not reflective of a change in need, suggesting that many patients are delaying accessing care during pandemic peaks. While the effect of this is uncertain, it is thought that this could have a significant impact on patient survival. Initial results reproduce the observed increase in the number of patients waiting.
Covid-19, Waiting Lists, simulation
Wise, Alan F.
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Heib, Alexander
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Morgan, Lucy E.
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Currie, Christine S.M.
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Champneys, Alan
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Nadarajah, Ramesh
dfa5ebfd-5fa6-4bd9-bea1-b0a2277d2959
Gale, Chris
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Mamas, Mamas
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23 February 2022
Wise, Alan F.
86b51a8e-ed69-4af8-996a-fee47b355a8f
Heib, Alexander
3b3d7f83-33d1-446e-b408-4411b6d1110d
Morgan, Lucy E.
9ed17744-4bec-4f13-a36d-8c5205658844
Currie, Christine S.M.
dcfd0972-1b42-4fac-8a67-0258cfdeb55a
Champneys, Alan
766a8125-ff76-4a02-9cf8-ea81cc03974e
Nadarajah, Ramesh
dfa5ebfd-5fa6-4bd9-bea1-b0a2277d2959
Gale, Chris
96b5706c-fd86-4b41-9568-3d917ef2c805
Mamas, Mamas
41515b72-75ff-4922-bb9f-8f9c63f9f5af
Wise, Alan F., Heib, Alexander, Morgan, Lucy E., Currie, Christine S.M., Champneys, Alan, Nadarajah, Ramesh, Gale, Chris and Mamas, Mamas
(2022)
Modeling of waiting lists for chronic heart failure in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021.
vol. 2021-December,
IEEE.
11 pp
.
(doi:10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715505).
Record type:
Conference or Workshop Item
(Paper)
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted access to health services globally for patients with non-Covid-19 conditions. We consider the condition of heart failure and describe a discrete event simulation model built to describe the impact of the pandemic and associated societal lockdowns on access to diagnosis procedures. The number of patients diagnosed with heart failure fell during the pandemic and in the UK, the number of GP referrals for diagnostic tests in November 2020 were at 20% of their pre-pandemic levels. While the numbers in the system have fallen clinicians believe that this is not reflective of a change in need, suggesting that many patients are delaying accessing care during pandemic peaks. While the effect of this is uncertain, it is thought that this could have a significant impact on patient survival. Initial results reproduce the observed increase in the number of patients waiting.
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WSC2020_CV_Modeling_Paper_2021
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Accepted/In Press date: 23 February 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 23 February 2022
Published date: 23 February 2022
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences for support during the Virtual Forum for Knowledge Exchange in Mathematical Sciences (V-KEMS) study group on Modeling Solutions to the Impact of Covid-19 on Cardiovascular Waiting Lists when work on this paper was undertaken. This work was supported by EPSRC grant number EP/V521929/1. We are also grateful to Ann Campbell and Carlos Lamas Fernandez who were involved in the early stages of this work at the study group meeting and to Clare Merritt for her support in setting up the project.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 IEEE.
Venue - Dates:
2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021, , Phoenix, United States, 2021-12-12 - 2021-12-15
Keywords:
Covid-19, Waiting Lists, simulation
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 470785
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/470785
ISSN: 0891-7736
PURE UUID: a68c1bcc-5aa2-4280-991b-9ef9d57b1ecb
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Date deposited: 20 Oct 2022 16:32
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 02:56
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Contributors
Author:
Alan F. Wise
Author:
Alexander Heib
Author:
Lucy E. Morgan
Author:
Alan Champneys
Author:
Ramesh Nadarajah
Author:
Chris Gale
Author:
Mamas Mamas
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