Dynamic multi-dimensional identification of Yunnan droughts and its seasonal scale linkages to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Abstract

Study region: Yunnan Province, China. Study focus: Yunnan Province (YP) is affected by frequent droughts that severely affect local agriculture and the ecological environment. Therefore, the identification of droughts and an analysis of their driving factors are of significant importance for mitigating local drought losses and guiding agricultural practices. This study identified the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamic changes in drought events over YP (period 1961–2018) using the severity-area-duration method. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal droughts and their lag period were also quantified by employing the sliding correlation coefficient and cross-wavelet analysis method. New hydrological insights for the region: 74 drought events were identified during 1961–2018 in YP, which were mainly short-duration that occurred in the 1980 s and 2000 s, and most drought centers are located over the northern and eastern parts of YP. We found that a significant correlation and different lag periods exist between Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and seasonal precipitation in YP. Spring droughts mainly occurred in El Niño years during the 1980 s and the 1990 s, whilst winter droughts mainly occurred in La Niña years during the 1990 s and the 2000 s with a lag period of up to 12 months.

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ORCID for Justin Sheffield: orcid.org/0000-0003-2400-0630

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