Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province, China
Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province, China
Tuberculosis was ranked No. 3 among 29 types of infectious diseases in January 2022 of Jiangsu Province, in the southeast of China, and it has strong seasonality whose incidence rate has been high in springs and low in winters. This comprehensive study extends the spreading dynamics to the control strategies of TB in Jiangsu Province with time-varying transmission rate, which is the first one in this type. The periodic transmission rate is incorporated to the classic SEIR model with susceptible, latent, infectious, and recovered compartments. The analysis shows that when the basic reproduction number (Formula presented.) is less than one, the epidemic will eventually disappear but, if (Formula presented.) is larger than one, the disease may persist with a periodic solution. The (Formula presented.) value of Jiangsu TB is calculated as 1.297. In addition, the model predicts that the epidemic will not disappear over time and there will be a major outbreak after certain years. To eradicate TB, this work introduces three control strategies on susceptible, latent, and infectious populations. It turns out that the optimal control solutions can reduce the incidence rate in 2035 by 90% from 2015, the goal of World Health Organization. Simultaneously, we find that the optimal controls have the same seasonality as the transmission rate. This indicates that Jiangsu Province needs to invest more control efforts in springs than in winters. In addition, the cost of control strategies is analyzed in terms of the unit cost, total cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Summarizing all results, we recommend targeting the latent patients, or both latent and infectious individuals, with the transmission rate-synchronized control strength as the most effective control strategy, to mitigate or even eradicate TB disease in Jiangsu Province.
cost-effectiveness, optimal control, prediction, time-dependent transmission rate
2072-2092
Xue, Ling
49268ffb-fd74-4d2d-88e3-d58c70c588bc
Ren, Xue
5dddd654-771f-4d4a-85c2-1bb4b4c195c2
Sun, Wei
bca29e03-90fc-4684-875e-61d35f1b5cba
Zheng, Xiaoming
876c88ea-44b8-4f20-9bed-92b292978667
Peng, Zhihang
04f1f1ba-074f-4cd5-ae55-73df82d57ebd
Singh, Bismark
9d3fc6cb-f55e-4562-9d5f-42f9a3ddd9a1
30 January 2023
Xue, Ling
49268ffb-fd74-4d2d-88e3-d58c70c588bc
Ren, Xue
5dddd654-771f-4d4a-85c2-1bb4b4c195c2
Sun, Wei
bca29e03-90fc-4684-875e-61d35f1b5cba
Zheng, Xiaoming
876c88ea-44b8-4f20-9bed-92b292978667
Peng, Zhihang
04f1f1ba-074f-4cd5-ae55-73df82d57ebd
Singh, Bismark
9d3fc6cb-f55e-4562-9d5f-42f9a3ddd9a1
Xue, Ling, Ren, Xue, Sun, Wei, Zheng, Xiaoming, Peng, Zhihang and Singh, Bismark
(2023)
Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province, China.
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 46 (2), .
(doi:10.1002/mma.8629).
Abstract
Tuberculosis was ranked No. 3 among 29 types of infectious diseases in January 2022 of Jiangsu Province, in the southeast of China, and it has strong seasonality whose incidence rate has been high in springs and low in winters. This comprehensive study extends the spreading dynamics to the control strategies of TB in Jiangsu Province with time-varying transmission rate, which is the first one in this type. The periodic transmission rate is incorporated to the classic SEIR model with susceptible, latent, infectious, and recovered compartments. The analysis shows that when the basic reproduction number (Formula presented.) is less than one, the epidemic will eventually disappear but, if (Formula presented.) is larger than one, the disease may persist with a periodic solution. The (Formula presented.) value of Jiangsu TB is calculated as 1.297. In addition, the model predicts that the epidemic will not disappear over time and there will be a major outbreak after certain years. To eradicate TB, this work introduces three control strategies on susceptible, latent, and infectious populations. It turns out that the optimal control solutions can reduce the incidence rate in 2035 by 90% from 2015, the goal of World Health Organization. Simultaneously, we find that the optimal controls have the same seasonality as the transmission rate. This indicates that Jiangsu Province needs to invest more control efforts in springs than in winters. In addition, the cost of control strategies is analyzed in terms of the unit cost, total cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Summarizing all results, we recommend targeting the latent patients, or both latent and infectious individuals, with the transmission rate-synchronized control strength as the most effective control strategy, to mitigate or even eradicate TB disease in Jiangsu Province.
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Math Methods in App Sciences - 2022 - Xue - Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis
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Accepted/In Press date: 26 July 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 August 2022
Published date: 30 January 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
LX is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 12171116 and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China 3072020 CFT2402. WS is funded by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China 3072021 CFP2401.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords:
cost-effectiveness, optimal control, prediction, time-dependent transmission rate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 472167
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/472167
ISSN: 0170-4214
PURE UUID: 7c4c0497-43b1-40c1-9ff5-ef55372e83e6
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Date deposited: 28 Nov 2022 18:02
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:16
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Author:
Ling Xue
Author:
Xue Ren
Author:
Wei Sun
Author:
Xiaoming Zheng
Author:
Zhihang Peng
Author:
Bismark Singh
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