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Getting the most out of maths: how to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from three initiatives that were part of the COVID-19 response in the UK

Getting the most out of maths: how to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from three initiatives that were part of the COVID-19 response in the UK
Getting the most out of maths: how to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from three initiatives that were part of the COVID-19 response in the UK

In March 2020 mathematics became a key part of the scientific advice to the UK government on the pandemic response to COVID-19. Mathematical and statistical modelling provided critical information on the spread of the virus and the potential impact of different interventions. The unprecedented scale of the challenge led the epidemiological modelling community in the UK to be pushed to its limits. At the same time, mathematical modellers across the country were keen to use their knowledge and skills to support the COVID-19 modelling effort. However, this sudden great interest in epidemiological modelling needed to be coordinated to provide much-needed support, and to limit the burden on epidemiological modellers already very stretched for time. In this paper we describe three initiatives set up in the UK in spring 2020 to coordinate the mathematical sciences research community in supporting mathematical modelling of COVID-19. Each initiative had different primary aims and worked to maximise synergies between the various projects. We reflect on the lessons learnt, highlighting the key roles of pre-existing research collaborations and focal centres of coordination in contributing to the success of these initiatives. We conclude with recommendations about important ways in which the scientific research community could be better prepared for future pandemics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.

COVID-19, Knowledge exchange, Mathematical modelling, Research co-ordination
0022-5193
Dangerfield, Ciara E.
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Abrahams, I. David
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Cates, Michael E
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Champneys, Alan R.
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Currie, Christine S.M.
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Enright, Jessica
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Gog, Julia R
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Goriely, Alain
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Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre
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Hoyle, Rebecca
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Kavoussanakis, Kostas
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Leeks, Jane
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Maini, Philip K
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Marr, Christie
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Merritt, Clare
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Mollison, Denis
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Ray, Surajit
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Thompson, Robin N.
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Wakefield, Alexandra
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Wasley, Dawn
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Dangerfield, Ciara E.
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Budd, Chris
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Butchers, Matt
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Cates, Michael E
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Champneys, Alan R.
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Currie, Christine S.M.
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Enright, Jessica
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Gog, Julia R
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Goriely, Alain
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Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre
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Hoyle, Rebecca
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Isham, Valerie
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Kaouri, Maha
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Kavoussanakis, Kostas
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Leeks, Jane
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Maini, Philip K
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Marr, Christie
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Merritt, Clare
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Mollison, Denis
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Ray, Surajit
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Thompson, Robin N.
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Wakefield, Alexandra
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Wasley, Dawn
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Dangerfield, Ciara E., Abrahams, I. David, Budd, Chris, Butchers, Matt, Cates, Michael E, Champneys, Alan R., Currie, Christine S.M., Enright, Jessica, Gog, Julia R, Goriely, Alain, Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Hoyle, Rebecca, Services, INI Professional, Isham, Valerie, Jordan, Joanna, Kaouri, Maha, Kavoussanakis, Kostas, Leeks, Jane, Maini, Philip K, Marr, Christie, Merritt, Clare, Mollison, Denis, Ray, Surajit, Thompson, Robin N., Wakefield, Alexandra and Wasley, Dawn (2022) Getting the most out of maths: how to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from three initiatives that were part of the COVID-19 response in the UK. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 557, [111332]. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111332).

Record type: Article

Abstract

In March 2020 mathematics became a key part of the scientific advice to the UK government on the pandemic response to COVID-19. Mathematical and statistical modelling provided critical information on the spread of the virus and the potential impact of different interventions. The unprecedented scale of the challenge led the epidemiological modelling community in the UK to be pushed to its limits. At the same time, mathematical modellers across the country were keen to use their knowledge and skills to support the COVID-19 modelling effort. However, this sudden great interest in epidemiological modelling needed to be coordinated to provide much-needed support, and to limit the burden on epidemiological modellers already very stretched for time. In this paper we describe three initiatives set up in the UK in spring 2020 to coordinate the mathematical sciences research community in supporting mathematical modelling of COVID-19. Each initiative had different primary aims and worked to maximise synergies between the various projects. We reflect on the lessons learnt, highlighting the key roles of pre-existing research collaborations and focal centres of coordination in contributing to the success of these initiatives. We conclude with recommendations about important ways in which the scientific research community could be better prepared for future pandemics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 17 October 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 30 October 2022
Published date: 14 November 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: This work was supported by INI EPSRC grant no EP/R014604/1, the RAMP continuity network grant EP/V053507/1, UKRI grant ST/V00221X/1, UKRI JUNIPER modelling consortium grant number MR/V038613/1, ICMS EPRSC grant no EP/R015007/1.
Keywords: COVID-19, Knowledge exchange, Mathematical modelling, Research co-ordination

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 472268
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/472268
ISSN: 0022-5193
PURE UUID: 9da9cde3-9b42-47e3-818d-075d2ba3f4b4
ORCID for Christine S.M. Currie: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7016-3652
ORCID for Rebecca Hoyle: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1645-1071

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 30 Nov 2022 17:42
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:48

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Contributors

Author: Ciara E. Dangerfield
Author: I. David Abrahams
Author: Chris Budd
Author: Matt Butchers
Author: Michael E Cates
Author: Alan R. Champneys
Author: Jessica Enright
Author: Julia R Gog
Author: Alain Goriely
Author: T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
Author: Rebecca Hoyle ORCID iD
Author: INI Professional Services
Author: Valerie Isham
Author: Joanna Jordan
Author: Maha Kaouri
Author: Kostas Kavoussanakis
Author: Jane Leeks
Author: Philip K Maini
Author: Christie Marr
Author: Clare Merritt
Author: Denis Mollison
Author: Surajit Ray
Author: Robin N. Thompson
Author: Alexandra Wakefield
Author: Dawn Wasley

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