Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000

Abstract

Background: women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease.

Methods: we used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020.

Findings: in 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020.

Interpretation: historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Andrew Tatem: orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

ORCID for Natalia Tejedor Garavito: orcid.org/0000-0002-1140-6263

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