The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
BackgroundThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.MethodsWe used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FindingsGlobally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.InterpretationGBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.
0140-6736
1423-1459
Fullman, Nancy
5e849414-0fa4-43ff-ad39-9df9c6d80528
Barber, Ryan M.
d68b589d-4141-46f1-8950-15404a292f93
Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
f6ab2e9e-cc17-46c2-90cc-c5cad8df8cad
Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
935c9eac-ed9b-4b30-88a0-4d44a4a88f31
Abbafati, Cristiana
521168a7-4836-42f0-b082-7b21c8093724
Abbas, Kaja M.
43cf5abc-77b4-4aea-809d-b9b4f0e48b17
Abd-Allah, Foad
67ee336c-84ba-4ff1-9324-28a02b45412e
Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
3e6cc89b-c00c-45cb-a900-b6f10adc9006
Abdulle, Abdishakur M.
c67dc603-c99e-423d-ba5d-4025a86c4a8b
Abera, Semaw Ferede
f04707db-82a9-4679-9666-8084b8fd377e
Aboyans, Victor
49a8cbaa-c577-4047-90af-3cdae75aa1f5
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
2b74ec9a-c7fa-4430-8688-4583a202ba72
Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.
ff1f25aa-05a7-450a-96b3-1a915a162395
Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
459d3706-aa1f-4fc7-a872-5a8071512bb5
Adetokunboh, Olatunji
f80bd9b5-5b52-4f3e-9a3d-2cfb4ee24ab1
Afshin, Ashkan
0cdfa673-855e-484f-9d48-4dcfe0d1a59c
Agrawal, Anurag
f7d3c8c9-b6ff-4260-b8b1-2aad8fa116b0
Agrawal, Sutapa
188691a9-f0cb-4849-8c64-83e151b4d3b5
Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
75344ae5-bc53-48b9-8d6d-fa9a55db84e2
Ahmadieh, Hamid
f828ae31-8e90-4368-8405-dbb30f9c21f6
Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
e1af2a0d-079f-4e56-b325-714bc9b1e318
Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
5304d503-ec48-4f2d-9dcf-f05f66588cc4
Aichour, Amani Nidhal
40a1d3eb-52b8-4099-9390-9b84a4ee1cd4
Aichour, Ibtihel
1ce5c6f5-fd93-4665-b65f-a261be5adfe9
Aiyar, Sneha
f4a66815-f292-4374-a7bd-035b73bf9194
Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
1f73524a-e377-4df4-acc9-69b5cefe408d
Akseer, Nadia
6e709c6f-ae2a-48fd-851f-dd9d8a205080
Al-Aly, Ziyad
99c680ae-f71e-475f-90b8-736dc2333782
Alam, Khurshid
3d76f8f9-aa4b-43e5-883a-a34d532a29f3
Alam, Noore
3ae9ef04-19e1-4c74-ae78-0eb4f0f9437e
Alasfoor, Deena
a52d751e-5a88-4a8f-a948-211ef2d07b27
Alene, Kefyalew Addis
78ffc0e2-0a0e-4bc6-94ee-989bf0d3a5b1
Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza
ff6dd2ff-3d80-43cb-942d-f3659a14dd91
Alkerwi, Ala'a
90c7fcfd-9014-438a-8357-1e00cc144d15
Alla, François
f9b2bd5d-8994-4b2e-8a8a-cf198461d2f3
Allebeck, Peter
559e275b-a01b-4c1e-b038-1190c20f7064
Allen, Christine
12194e07-19a3-45c9-aabd-7183ddbb9399
Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
a50b095d-1d29-4cf2-815d-56a7b1fb2730
Bennett, James R.
3e4dbfab-da39-4b3c-86d5-f52bf398d3ea
Cooper, Cyrus
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
Fernandes, João C.
03326cb4-3918-4bde-94d7-ba3b2eea718e
Gething, Peter W.
2cacb985-6234-4d1f-9aa1-1dc7bee7da14
Johnson, Sarah Charlotte
4d715d01-3dca-4790-a476-b080f96c2ce8
Li, Yongmei
6f8c9db1-1fc7-4cde-a515-2d5944524959
Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur
f55a7a1e-04d9-44fe-9253-3044ffdb4b3b
Salomon, Joshua A.
af51ebe8-275d-44a2-9bc6-2afc10a09d7c
Smith, David L.
567dbcc2-7782-417b-96d6-dbc55a0ace22
Smith, Alison
6e9e908e-6c05-4cab-9b87-17d58061115a
Wang, Yuan Pang
332ff320-0449-4df8-a3db-2ac6020cff7f
Lim, Stephen S.
99ad2619-c72c-4c23-a352-33f473f1a30f
GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators
Fullman, Nancy
5e849414-0fa4-43ff-ad39-9df9c6d80528
Barber, Ryan M.
d68b589d-4141-46f1-8950-15404a292f93
Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
f6ab2e9e-cc17-46c2-90cc-c5cad8df8cad
Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
935c9eac-ed9b-4b30-88a0-4d44a4a88f31
Abbafati, Cristiana
521168a7-4836-42f0-b082-7b21c8093724
Abbas, Kaja M.
43cf5abc-77b4-4aea-809d-b9b4f0e48b17
Abd-Allah, Foad
67ee336c-84ba-4ff1-9324-28a02b45412e
Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
3e6cc89b-c00c-45cb-a900-b6f10adc9006
Abdulle, Abdishakur M.
c67dc603-c99e-423d-ba5d-4025a86c4a8b
Abera, Semaw Ferede
f04707db-82a9-4679-9666-8084b8fd377e
Aboyans, Victor
49a8cbaa-c577-4047-90af-3cdae75aa1f5
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
2b74ec9a-c7fa-4430-8688-4583a202ba72
Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.
ff1f25aa-05a7-450a-96b3-1a915a162395
Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
459d3706-aa1f-4fc7-a872-5a8071512bb5
Adetokunboh, Olatunji
f80bd9b5-5b52-4f3e-9a3d-2cfb4ee24ab1
Afshin, Ashkan
0cdfa673-855e-484f-9d48-4dcfe0d1a59c
Agrawal, Anurag
f7d3c8c9-b6ff-4260-b8b1-2aad8fa116b0
Agrawal, Sutapa
188691a9-f0cb-4849-8c64-83e151b4d3b5
Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
75344ae5-bc53-48b9-8d6d-fa9a55db84e2
Ahmadieh, Hamid
f828ae31-8e90-4368-8405-dbb30f9c21f6
Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
e1af2a0d-079f-4e56-b325-714bc9b1e318
Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
5304d503-ec48-4f2d-9dcf-f05f66588cc4
Aichour, Amani Nidhal
40a1d3eb-52b8-4099-9390-9b84a4ee1cd4
Aichour, Ibtihel
1ce5c6f5-fd93-4665-b65f-a261be5adfe9
Aiyar, Sneha
f4a66815-f292-4374-a7bd-035b73bf9194
Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
1f73524a-e377-4df4-acc9-69b5cefe408d
Akseer, Nadia
6e709c6f-ae2a-48fd-851f-dd9d8a205080
Al-Aly, Ziyad
99c680ae-f71e-475f-90b8-736dc2333782
Alam, Khurshid
3d76f8f9-aa4b-43e5-883a-a34d532a29f3
Alam, Noore
3ae9ef04-19e1-4c74-ae78-0eb4f0f9437e
Alasfoor, Deena
a52d751e-5a88-4a8f-a948-211ef2d07b27
Alene, Kefyalew Addis
78ffc0e2-0a0e-4bc6-94ee-989bf0d3a5b1
Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza
ff6dd2ff-3d80-43cb-942d-f3659a14dd91
Alkerwi, Ala'a
90c7fcfd-9014-438a-8357-1e00cc144d15
Alla, François
f9b2bd5d-8994-4b2e-8a8a-cf198461d2f3
Allebeck, Peter
559e275b-a01b-4c1e-b038-1190c20f7064
Allen, Christine
12194e07-19a3-45c9-aabd-7183ddbb9399
Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
a50b095d-1d29-4cf2-815d-56a7b1fb2730
Bennett, James R.
3e4dbfab-da39-4b3c-86d5-f52bf398d3ea
Cooper, Cyrus
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
Fernandes, João C.
03326cb4-3918-4bde-94d7-ba3b2eea718e
Gething, Peter W.
2cacb985-6234-4d1f-9aa1-1dc7bee7da14
Johnson, Sarah Charlotte
4d715d01-3dca-4790-a476-b080f96c2ce8
Li, Yongmei
6f8c9db1-1fc7-4cde-a515-2d5944524959
Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur
f55a7a1e-04d9-44fe-9253-3044ffdb4b3b
Salomon, Joshua A.
af51ebe8-275d-44a2-9bc6-2afc10a09d7c
Smith, David L.
567dbcc2-7782-417b-96d6-dbc55a0ace22
Smith, Alison
6e9e908e-6c05-4cab-9b87-17d58061115a
Wang, Yuan Pang
332ff320-0449-4df8-a3db-2ac6020cff7f
Lim, Stephen S.
99ad2619-c72c-4c23-a352-33f473f1a30f

GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators (2017) Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet, 390 (10100), 1423-1459. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X).

Record type: Letter

Abstract

BackgroundThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.MethodsWe used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FindingsGlobally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.InterpretationGBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 12 September 2017
Published date: 16 September 2017
Additional Information: A correction has been attached to this output located at https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32650-8

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 472688
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/472688
ISSN: 0140-6736
PURE UUID: b5f3045b-91cb-4c10-898b-a2c689ac65e1
ORCID for Cyrus Cooper: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0709

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 14 Dec 2022 17:37
Last modified: 16 Aug 2024 01:36

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Nancy Fullman
Author: Ryan M. Barber
Author: Amanuel Alemu Abajobir
Author: Kalkidan Hassen Abate
Author: Cristiana Abbafati
Author: Kaja M. Abbas
Author: Foad Abd-Allah
Author: Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Author: Abdishakur M. Abdulle
Author: Semaw Ferede Abera
Author: Victor Aboyans
Author: Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Author: Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh
Author: Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
Author: Olatunji Adetokunboh
Author: Ashkan Afshin
Author: Anurag Agrawal
Author: Sutapa Agrawal
Author: Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri
Author: Hamid Ahmadieh
Author: Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Author: Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour
Author: Amani Nidhal Aichour
Author: Ibtihel Aichour
Author: Sneha Aiyar
Author: Rufus Olusola Akinyemi
Author: Nadia Akseer
Author: Ziyad Al-Aly
Author: Khurshid Alam
Author: Noore Alam
Author: Deena Alasfoor
Author: Kefyalew Addis Alene
Author: Reza Alizadeh-Navaei
Author: Ala'a Alkerwi
Author: François Alla
Author: Peter Allebeck
Author: Christine Allen
Author: Rajaa Al-Raddadi
Author: James R. Bennett
Author: Cyrus Cooper ORCID iD
Author: João C. Fernandes
Author: Peter W. Gething
Author: Sarah Charlotte Johnson
Author: Yongmei Li
Author: Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman
Author: Joshua A. Salomon
Author: David L. Smith
Author: Alison Smith
Author: Yuan Pang Wang
Author: Stephen S. Lim
Corporate Author: GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×