Exploring dependencies among global environmental, socioeconomic, and technological risks
Exploring dependencies among global environmental, socioeconomic, and technological risks
Global risks pose a serious challenge to the success of international businesses due to the direct impact of risks on business operations. The World Economic Forum (WEF) regularly conducts surveys involving experts to help governments and businesses understand the significance of global risks across different regions. The WEF has classified 30 global risks of doing business into five distinct risk categories, including economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological risks. This study aims to utilize the survey data by WEF for establishing statistical dependencies among different risk categories. Rather than using the conventional approach of prioritizing risks based on probability and impact ratings, which has been criticized in the literature for several limitations, we make use of expert judgment regarding the relative importance of risks. The results of this study reveal strong statistical dependencies among five risk categories and associated risks. Another merit of this paper is to capture the uncertainty surrounding risk assessments. There is a negative correlation observed between the two risk ranking schemes while considering the probability of individual global risks being in the top five and bottom five risks.
Economic, Environmental, Geopolitical, Global risks, Societal, Technological
106912
Qazi, Abroon
9ef4fdc7-0a1a-4805-a46c-5d210b523517
Al-mhdawi, M.K.S.
46c878d1-a5a0-4113-9438-4188f8856068
January 2023
Qazi, Abroon
9ef4fdc7-0a1a-4805-a46c-5d210b523517
Al-mhdawi, M.K.S.
46c878d1-a5a0-4113-9438-4188f8856068
Qazi, Abroon and Al-mhdawi, M.K.S.
(2023)
Exploring dependencies among global environmental, socioeconomic, and technological risks.
Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 98, , [106912].
(doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106912).
Abstract
Global risks pose a serious challenge to the success of international businesses due to the direct impact of risks on business operations. The World Economic Forum (WEF) regularly conducts surveys involving experts to help governments and businesses understand the significance of global risks across different regions. The WEF has classified 30 global risks of doing business into five distinct risk categories, including economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological risks. This study aims to utilize the survey data by WEF for establishing statistical dependencies among different risk categories. Rather than using the conventional approach of prioritizing risks based on probability and impact ratings, which has been criticized in the literature for several limitations, we make use of expert judgment regarding the relative importance of risks. The results of this study reveal strong statistical dependencies among five risk categories and associated risks. Another merit of this paper is to capture the uncertainty surrounding risk assessments. There is a negative correlation observed between the two risk ranking schemes while considering the probability of individual global risks being in the top five and bottom five risks.
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Accepted/In Press date: 6 September 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 23 September 2022
Published date: January 2023
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© 2022 Elsevier Inc.
Keywords:
Economic, Environmental, Geopolitical, Global risks, Societal, Technological
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Local EPrints ID: 472756
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/472756
ISSN: 0195-9255
PURE UUID: c183cd85-c7df-486e-ae5a-2be18614d00d
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Date deposited: 16 Dec 2022 18:00
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 22:52
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Author:
Abroon Qazi
Author:
M.K.S. Al-mhdawi
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