Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic
Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic
This paper investigates the tail behavior patterns of commodity assets, the risk exposure of these assets, and how they rank given their safe haven properties. We use state-of-the-art dynamic generalized autoregressive score models to jointly estimate tail risk measures for ten commodity assets (aluminum, copper, crude oil, gasoline, gold, heating oil, lead, soybeans, tin, and wheat) over the period from September 14, 2011 to June 30, 2021. Our in-sample findings suggest that aluminum outperforms gold as a safe haven in both pre- and COVID-19 times. The out-of-sample results confirm that aluminum retains its leading role during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings bear implications for constructing well-diversified portfolios which is vital for investors, portfolio managers, and financial advisors, and for policymakers to design policies that ensure financial stability during periods of market turmoil, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Commodity forecasting, Generalized autoregressive score, Out-of-sample predictions, Safe haven assets, Tail risk
Enilov, Martin
a33a63d6-b26a-4ab5-88bb-d92151983cde
Mensi, Walid
d61303bf-06e3-4cf7-bb98-7821c46b1125
Stankov, Petar
f9f2b8a1-e4f1-46fb-9f80-d55f14130b9c
Enilov, Martin
a33a63d6-b26a-4ab5-88bb-d92151983cde
Mensi, Walid
d61303bf-06e3-4cf7-bb98-7821c46b1125
Stankov, Petar
f9f2b8a1-e4f1-46fb-9f80-d55f14130b9c
Enilov, Martin, Mensi, Walid and Stankov, Petar
(2022)
Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic.
Journal of Commodity Markets, 29, [100307].
(doi:10.1016/j.jcomm.2022.100307).
Abstract
This paper investigates the tail behavior patterns of commodity assets, the risk exposure of these assets, and how they rank given their safe haven properties. We use state-of-the-art dynamic generalized autoregressive score models to jointly estimate tail risk measures for ten commodity assets (aluminum, copper, crude oil, gasoline, gold, heating oil, lead, soybeans, tin, and wheat) over the period from September 14, 2011 to June 30, 2021. Our in-sample findings suggest that aluminum outperforms gold as a safe haven in both pre- and COVID-19 times. The out-of-sample results confirm that aluminum retains its leading role during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings bear implications for constructing well-diversified portfolios which is vital for investors, portfolio managers, and financial advisors, and for policymakers to design policies that ensure financial stability during periods of market turmoil, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Accepted/In Press date: 19 December 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 22 December 2022
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Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords:
Commodity forecasting, Generalized autoregressive score, Out-of-sample predictions, Safe haven assets, Tail risk
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Local EPrints ID: 474695
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/474695
ISSN: 2405-8513
PURE UUID: d588031f-452d-4ef9-a974-992cccfbaade
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Date deposited: 01 Mar 2023 17:58
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 04:13
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Contributors
Author:
Martin Enilov
Author:
Walid Mensi
Author:
Petar Stankov
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