Replication Data for: Institutions, Parties, and the Evolution of Electoral Preferences

(2022) Replication Data for: Institutions, Parties, and the Evolution of Electoral Preferences. Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/dvn/dr9rrk [Dataset]

Record type: Dataset

Abstract

Political institutions and parties define the set of choices faced by voters, and structure the evolution of electoral preferences over the election cycle. While previous research examines characteristics of institutions, here we consider the influence of political parties. We theorize ways in which they matter to the formation of electoral preferences over the election timeline, and also how these relate to institutional features. Our analysis simultaneously assesses the influence of different system- and party-level variables on the dynamic structure of voters’ preferences in legislative elections using a dataset of 27,357 vote intention polls in 26 countries since 1942, covering 231 discrete electoral cycles and encompassing 208 political parties. The results indicate that electoral institutions and parties both are important, but the characteristics of parties matter most of all, and effectively mediate institutional influences. These have implications for the effects of election campaigns, the prediction of election outcomes, and party behavior itself.

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