Ethnic differences in risk of severe Covid-19: to what extent are they driven by exposure?

Abstract

Background: this study quantifies the risk of Covid-19 among ethnic groups of healthcare staff during the first pandemic wave in England.

Methods: we analysed data on 959 356 employees employed by 191 National Health Service trusts during 1 January 2019 to 31 July 2020, comparing rates of Covid-19 sickness absence in different ethnic groups.

Results: in comparison with White ethnic groups, the risk of short-duration Covid-19 sickness absence was modestly elevated in South Asian but not Black groups. However, all Black and ethnic minority groups were at higher risk of prolonged Covid-19 sickness absence. Odds ratios (ORs) relative to White ethnicity were more than doubled in South Asian groups (Indian OR 2.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.36-2.63; Pakistani OR 2.38, 2.15-2.64; Bangladeshi OR 2.38, 1.98-2.86), while that for Black African ethnicity was 1.82 (1.71-1.93). In nursing/midwifery staff, the association of ethnicity with prolonged Covid-19 sickness absence was strong; the odds of South Asian nurses/midwives having a prolonged episode of Covid-19 sickness absence were increased 3-fold (OR 3.05, 2.82-3.30).

Conclusions: residual differences in risk of short term Covid-19 sickness absences among ethnic groups may reflect differences in non-occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Our results indicate ethnic differences in vulnerability to Covid-19, which may be only partly explained by medical comorbidities.

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