State-dependence of Cenozoic thermal extremes

Cael, B. B. and Goodwin, Philip (2023) State-dependence of Cenozoic thermal extremes. Communications Earth & Environment, 4 (1), [88]. (doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00753-1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Oxygen isotopes in sediments reflect Earth’s past temperature, revealing a cooling over the Cenozoic punctuated by multimillenial thermal extreme events. The magnitude of these extremes and their dependency on baseline climate state is not clearly understood. Here we use global records of deep sea foraminiferal δ18O as a proxy for atmospheric temperature over the Cenezoic and investigate how closely the generalised extreme value distribution matches δ18O block maxima. We find that the distribution of these extremes is captured well by the generalized extreme value distribution. In addition, the distribution of extremes’ shape changes with baseline temperature such that large thermal extremes are more likely in warmer climates. We therefore suggest that anthropogenic warming has the potential to return the baseline climate state to one where large thermal extremes are more likely.

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Accepted/In Press date: 13 March 2023

Published date: 23 March 2023

Additional Information: Funding Information: We thank the many scientists whose collective work has generated the δ18O record, which our work investigates, and Manon Duret for comments on a previous draft of this paper. Cael acknowledges funding from NERC under ECOMAD, and from the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under grant 820989 (COMFORT). Goodwin acknowledges NERC grant NE/T010657/1. The work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. Reprints and permissions information will be available at www.nature.com/reprints should this paper be accepted for publication. Funding Information: We thank the many scientists whose collective work has generated the δO record, which our work investigates, and Manon Duret for comments on a previous draft of this paper. Cael acknowledges funding from NERC under ECOMAD, and from the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under grant 820989 (COMFORT). Goodwin acknowledges NERC grant NE/T010657/1. The work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. Reprints and permissions information will be available at www.nature.com/reprints should this paper be accepted for publication. 18 Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

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