The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation
Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation
Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.
Hirschfeld, Daniella
d5a7047f-faec-4dec-b88b-c53bb55cc068
Behar, David
5cd5b8a8-25fd-4c7f-8cc6-2a9842cab252
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Cahill, Niamh
0e0568f6-bb3a-4c80-a393-8f44fea10a18
James, Thomas
f1fa1621-a107-426d-9ef4-ac286438d703
Horton, Benjamin P.
8cc6f186-e141-4b26-af6f-e72b13eac062
Portman, Michelle E.
f9fad181-0ae7-489b-b745-815bcfeae66a
Bell, Rob
5407f8d8-7caf-43e8-978e-a61ab3da0933
Campo, Matthew
cd8ace9a-c572-48f9-9054-f422925b88f3
Esteban, Miguel
a765a4ef-5ce1-4a34-80a9-f7960d816c01
Goble, Bronwyn
8a29b47e-a685-43d8-ad05-73e0e2761830
Rahman, Munsur
dfaeee62-6d84-443b-8362-fabf05517b51
Addo, Kwasi Appeaning
ba52d61b-153f-4263-bb45-ee23efd2fb58
Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed
19df8852-3897-4b83-92a8-707504cd13f0
Aunger, Monique
86f7c465-474f-4825-9fb9-bf142cd24186
Babitsky, Orly
52acf2d7-2f22-45ee-8a7a-a227a67895a1
Beal, Anders
2809a251-0c9f-405e-82d4-e3aaa52f5313
Boyle, Ray
755444e7-5d56-4342-bc90-b2c7e4217842
Fang, Jiayi
74a98ae9-1da6-4fae-94e4-304a238a5103
Gohar, Amir
ba705b1b-7488-4211-beef-8108b2ee35e0
Hanson, Susan
dc079588-5eb2-4177-8df5-01fa493d8c16
Karamesines, Saul
90db1bb6-de3e-4900-91c1-63ad91e1b2a8
Kim, M. J.
960c42f9-a6a9-4c82-b7f3-a1708a1a8492
Lohmann, Hilary
40c64826-918a-47f2-92b5-e7359c63562f
Mcinnes, Kathy
21f19c5b-2000-43ef-bee2-f8bf3c9a1f8b
Mimura, Nobuo
265bfafc-791d-4d95-8d72-323847f8f416
Ramsay, Doug
964ee465-67d3-47d9-9836-52f23bee661d
Wenger, Landis
6916bf60-4050-40c9-8f4e-4aaf426ad71d
Yokoki, Hiromune
eb1703ed-b06c-498b-850a-77548d158e16
Hirschfeld, Daniella
d5a7047f-faec-4dec-b88b-c53bb55cc068
Behar, David
5cd5b8a8-25fd-4c7f-8cc6-2a9842cab252
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Cahill, Niamh
0e0568f6-bb3a-4c80-a393-8f44fea10a18
James, Thomas
f1fa1621-a107-426d-9ef4-ac286438d703
Horton, Benjamin P.
8cc6f186-e141-4b26-af6f-e72b13eac062
Portman, Michelle E.
f9fad181-0ae7-489b-b745-815bcfeae66a
Bell, Rob
5407f8d8-7caf-43e8-978e-a61ab3da0933
Campo, Matthew
cd8ace9a-c572-48f9-9054-f422925b88f3
Esteban, Miguel
a765a4ef-5ce1-4a34-80a9-f7960d816c01
Goble, Bronwyn
8a29b47e-a685-43d8-ad05-73e0e2761830
Rahman, Munsur
dfaeee62-6d84-443b-8362-fabf05517b51
Addo, Kwasi Appeaning
ba52d61b-153f-4263-bb45-ee23efd2fb58
Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed
19df8852-3897-4b83-92a8-707504cd13f0
Aunger, Monique
86f7c465-474f-4825-9fb9-bf142cd24186
Babitsky, Orly
52acf2d7-2f22-45ee-8a7a-a227a67895a1
Beal, Anders
2809a251-0c9f-405e-82d4-e3aaa52f5313
Boyle, Ray
755444e7-5d56-4342-bc90-b2c7e4217842
Fang, Jiayi
74a98ae9-1da6-4fae-94e4-304a238a5103
Gohar, Amir
ba705b1b-7488-4211-beef-8108b2ee35e0
Hanson, Susan
dc079588-5eb2-4177-8df5-01fa493d8c16
Karamesines, Saul
90db1bb6-de3e-4900-91c1-63ad91e1b2a8
Kim, M. J.
960c42f9-a6a9-4c82-b7f3-a1708a1a8492
Lohmann, Hilary
40c64826-918a-47f2-92b5-e7359c63562f
Mcinnes, Kathy
21f19c5b-2000-43ef-bee2-f8bf3c9a1f8b
Mimura, Nobuo
265bfafc-791d-4d95-8d72-323847f8f416
Ramsay, Doug
964ee465-67d3-47d9-9836-52f23bee661d
Wenger, Landis
6916bf60-4050-40c9-8f4e-4aaf426ad71d
Yokoki, Hiromune
eb1703ed-b06c-498b-850a-77548d158e16

Hirschfeld, Daniella, Behar, David, Nicholls, Robert J., Cahill, Niamh, James, Thomas, Horton, Benjamin P., Portman, Michelle E., Bell, Rob, Campo, Matthew, Esteban, Miguel, Goble, Bronwyn, Rahman, Munsur, Addo, Kwasi Appeaning, Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed, Aunger, Monique, Babitsky, Orly, Beal, Anders, Boyle, Ray, Fang, Jiayi, Gohar, Amir, Hanson, Susan, Karamesines, Saul, Kim, M. J., Lohmann, Hilary, Mcinnes, Kathy, Mimura, Nobuo, Ramsay, Doug, Wenger, Landis and Yokoki, Hiromune (2023) Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation. Communications Earth & Environment, 4 (1), [102]. (doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.

Text
s43247-023-00703-x - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (2MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 3 February 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 2 April 2023
Published date: 3 April 2023
Additional Information: Funding Information: Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures. Funding Information: Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s) and His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 476447
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/476447
PURE UUID: b0d03221-6dc0-446e-b0ac-4059547c8c08
ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 02 May 2023 13:05
Last modified: 06 Jun 2024 01:42

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Daniella Hirschfeld
Author: David Behar
Author: Niamh Cahill
Author: Thomas James
Author: Benjamin P. Horton
Author: Michelle E. Portman
Author: Rob Bell
Author: Matthew Campo
Author: Miguel Esteban
Author: Bronwyn Goble
Author: Munsur Rahman
Author: Kwasi Appeaning Addo
Author: Faiz Ahmed Chundeli
Author: Monique Aunger
Author: Orly Babitsky
Author: Anders Beal
Author: Ray Boyle
Author: Jiayi Fang
Author: Amir Gohar
Author: Susan Hanson
Author: Saul Karamesines
Author: M. J. Kim
Author: Hilary Lohmann
Author: Kathy Mcinnes
Author: Nobuo Mimura
Author: Doug Ramsay
Author: Landis Wenger
Author: Hiromune Yokoki

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×