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Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation
Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation
Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.
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Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed
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Fang, Jiayi
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Hanson, Susan
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Wenger, Landis
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Hirschfeld, Daniella
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Portman, Michelle E.
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Bell, Rob
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Esteban, Miguel
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Babitsky, Orly
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Beal, Anders
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Hanson, Susan
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Mimura, Nobuo
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Wenger, Landis
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Hirschfeld, Daniella, Behar, David, Nicholls, Robert J., Cahill, Niamh, James, Thomas, Horton, Benjamin P., Portman, Michelle E., Bell, Rob, Campo, Matthew, Esteban, Miguel, Goble, Bronwyn, Rahman, Munsur, Addo, Kwasi Appeaning, Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed, Aunger, Monique, Babitsky, Orly, Beal, Anders, Boyle, Ray, Fang, Jiayi, Gohar, Amir, Hanson, Susan, Karamesines, Saul, Kim, M. J., Lohmann, Hilary, Mcinnes, Kathy, Mimura, Nobuo, Ramsay, Doug, Wenger, Landis and Yokoki, Hiromune (2023) Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation. Communications Earth & Environment, 4 (1), [102]. (doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.

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Accepted/In Press date: 3 February 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 2 April 2023
Published date: 3 April 2023
Additional Information: Funding Information: Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures. Funding Information: Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s) and His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 476447
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/476447
PURE UUID: b0d03221-6dc0-446e-b0ac-4059547c8c08
ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 02 May 2023 13:05
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 02:58

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Contributors

Author: Daniella Hirschfeld
Author: David Behar
Author: Niamh Cahill
Author: Thomas James
Author: Benjamin P. Horton
Author: Michelle E. Portman
Author: Rob Bell
Author: Matthew Campo
Author: Miguel Esteban
Author: Bronwyn Goble
Author: Munsur Rahman
Author: Kwasi Appeaning Addo
Author: Faiz Ahmed Chundeli
Author: Monique Aunger
Author: Orly Babitsky
Author: Anders Beal
Author: Ray Boyle
Author: Jiayi Fang
Author: Amir Gohar
Author: Susan Hanson
Author: Saul Karamesines
Author: M. J. Kim
Author: Hilary Lohmann
Author: Kathy Mcinnes
Author: Nobuo Mimura
Author: Doug Ramsay
Author: Landis Wenger
Author: Hiromune Yokoki

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