A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only
A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only
This paper presents a novel system of annual Population Estimates Compiled from Administrative Data Only (PECADO) for Ireland in the absence of a Central Population Register. The system is entirely based on data originated from administrative sources, so that population estimates can be produced even without purposely designed coverage surveys or a periodic census to recalibrate estimates. It requires several extensions to the traditional Dual System Estimation (DSE) methodology, including a restatement of the underlying assumptions, a trimmed DSE method for dealing with erroneous enumerations in the administrative register, and a test for heterogeneous capture probabilities to facilitate the choice of blocking in applications. The PECADO estimates for years 2011 - 2016 are compared to the Census counts in 2011 and 2016. We demonstrate how the system can be used to investigate the Census 2016 undercount in Ireland, in place of the traditional approach of deploying additional population coverage surveys.
census transformation, capture-recapture methods, administrative data
Dunne, John
4378d8c4-1e21-4bff-98c6-0d4a4d707794
Zhang, Li-Chun
a5d48518-7f71-4ed9-bdcb-6585c2da3649
25 April 2023
Dunne, John
4378d8c4-1e21-4bff-98c6-0d4a4d707794
Zhang, Li-Chun
a5d48518-7f71-4ed9-bdcb-6585c2da3649
Dunne, John and Zhang, Li-Chun
(2023)
A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).
(doi:10.1093/jrsssa/qnad065).
Abstract
This paper presents a novel system of annual Population Estimates Compiled from Administrative Data Only (PECADO) for Ireland in the absence of a Central Population Register. The system is entirely based on data originated from administrative sources, so that population estimates can be produced even without purposely designed coverage surveys or a periodic census to recalibrate estimates. It requires several extensions to the traditional Dual System Estimation (DSE) methodology, including a restatement of the underlying assumptions, a trimmed DSE method for dealing with erroneous enumerations in the administrative register, and a test for heterogeneous capture probabilities to facilitate the choice of blocking in applications. The PECADO estimates for years 2011 - 2016 are compared to the Census counts in 2011 and 2016. We demonstrate how the system can be used to investigate the Census 2016 undercount in Ireland, in place of the traditional approach of deploying additional population coverage surveys.
Text
RSSPECADO-accepted
- Accepted Manuscript
Text
qnad065
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 20 March 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 April 2023
Published date: 25 April 2023
Keywords:
census transformation, capture-recapture methods, administrative data
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 476684
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/476684
ISSN: 0964-1998
PURE UUID: 69e5fa8d-a5b3-4299-8b42-c2492c41389f
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Date deposited: 11 May 2023 16:40
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:30
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Author:
John Dunne
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