Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback

The climate feedback determines how Earth's climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature "pattern effect," whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m-2 K-1 over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models' climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections.

10.1126/sciadv.adf9302

2375-2548

Cael, B. B.

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Bloch-Johnson, Jonah

7836f5bc-6b85-447a-8af5-13680674904d

Ceppi, Paulo

793c245e-40db-4524-ac97-dd4da0f16e98

Fredriksen, Hege-Beate

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Goodwin, Philip

87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd

Gregory, Jonathan M.

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Smith, Christopher J.

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Williams, Richard G.

4fa8f460-9b71-4058-9b54-89bd916b5f43

21 April 2023

Cael, B. B.

458442c7-574e-42dd-b2aa-717277e14eba

Bloch-Johnson, Jonah

7836f5bc-6b85-447a-8af5-13680674904d

Ceppi, Paulo

793c245e-40db-4524-ac97-dd4da0f16e98

Fredriksen, Hege-Beate

65a86458-d60e-404d-9f3f-ec7bbf82b141

Goodwin, Philip

87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd

Gregory, Jonathan M.

d4d64d3c-9de1-4147-9cf0-34e6e111f9c5

Smith, Christopher J.

cd1a9a4a-2759-4bee-8be2-cc325992a625

Williams, Richard G.

4fa8f460-9b71-4058-9b54-89bd916b5f43

Cael, B. B., Bloch-Johnson, Jonah, Ceppi, Paulo, Fredriksen, Hege-Beate, Goodwin, Philip, Gregory, Jonathan M., Smith, Christopher J. and Williams, Richard G. (2023) Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback. Science Advances, 9 (16), [eadf9302]. (doi:10.1126/sciadv.adf9302).

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e-pub ahead of print date: 21 April 2023

Published date: 21 April 2023

Additional Information: Funding Information: B.B.C. acknowledges support from the National Environmental Research Council through Enhancing Climate Observations, Models and Data and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 820989 (project COMFORT). The work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. P.C. was supported by an Imperial College Research Fellowship and by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/T006250/1 and NE/V012045/1. C.J.S. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). R.G.W. was supported by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/T007788/1. J.B.-J. and J.M.G. were supported by the European Research Council (grant agreement no. 786427, project “Couplet”). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved.

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