Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback
Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback
The climate feedback determines how Earth's climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature "pattern effect," whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m-2 K-1 over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models' climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections.
Cael, B. B.
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Bloch-Johnson, Jonah
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Ceppi, Paulo
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Fredriksen, Hege-Beate
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Goodwin, Philip
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Gregory, Jonathan M.
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Smith, Christopher J.
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Williams, Richard G.
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Cael, B. B.
458442c7-574e-42dd-b2aa-717277e14eba
Bloch-Johnson, Jonah
7836f5bc-6b85-447a-8af5-13680674904d
Ceppi, Paulo
793c245e-40db-4524-ac97-dd4da0f16e98
Fredriksen, Hege-Beate
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Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Gregory, Jonathan M.
d4d64d3c-9de1-4147-9cf0-34e6e111f9c5
Smith, Christopher J.
cd1a9a4a-2759-4bee-8be2-cc325992a625
Williams, Richard G.
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Cael, B. B., Bloch-Johnson, Jonah, Ceppi, Paulo, Fredriksen, Hege-Beate, Goodwin, Philip, Gregory, Jonathan M., Smith, Christopher J. and Williams, Richard G.
(2023)
Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback.
Science Advances, 9 (16), [eadf9302].
(doi:10.1126/sciadv.adf9302).
Abstract
The climate feedback determines how Earth's climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature "pattern effect," whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m-2 K-1 over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models' climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections.
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sciadv.adf9302
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e-pub ahead of print date: 21 April 2023
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Local EPrints ID: 476981
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/476981
ISSN: 2375-2548
PURE UUID: a9c21204-791b-4afc-8f48-aa7a3ebe5a69
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Date deposited: 23 May 2023 16:31
Last modified: 24 May 2023 01:42
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Author:
B. B. Cael
Author:
Jonah Bloch-Johnson
Author:
Paulo Ceppi
Author:
Hege-Beate Fredriksen
Author:
Jonathan M. Gregory
Author:
Christopher J. Smith
Author:
Richard G. Williams
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