MADDM: multi-advisor dynamic binary decision-making by maximizing the utility

Abstract

Being able to infer ground truth from the responses of multiple imperfect advisors is a problem of crucial importance in many decision-making applications, such as lending, trading, investment, and crowd-sourcing. In practice, however, gathering answers from a set of advisors has a cost. Therefore, finding an advisor selection strategy that retrieves a reliable answer and maximizes the overall utility is a challenging problem. To address this problem, we propose a novel strategy for optimally selecting a set of advisers in a sequential binary decision-making setting, where multiple decisions need to be made over time. Crucially, we assume no access to ground truth and no prior knowledge about the reliability of advisers. Specifically, our approach considers how to simultaneously (1) select advisors by balancing the advisors' costs and the value of making correct decisions, (2) learn the trustworthiness of advisers dynamically without prior information by asking multiple advisers, and (3) make optimal decisions without access to the ground truth, improving this over time. We evaluate our algorithm through several numerical experiments. The results show that our approach outperforms two other methods that combine state-of-the-art models.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Zhaori Guo: orcid.org/0000-0002-1957-7059

ORCID for Timothy Norman: orcid.org/0000-0002-6387-4034

ORCID for Enrico Gerding: orcid.org/0000-0001-7200-552X

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