Depopulation in Ukraine: low fertility, high mortality and emigration

Abstract

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to severe population loss as millions exited the country and casualties mounted. However, population decline in Ukraine had been happening for decades due to the triple burden of depopulation: low fertility, high mortality and substantial emigration. Ukraine had also already experienced years of armed conflict and large-scale displacement after the Russian-backed separatist movement, which started in 2014 and exacerbated population decline.
This policy briefing describes Ukrainians’ perspectives of depopulation collected using online focus groups in July 2021, seven months before the current invasion. Discussions were compared from eastern Ukraine, including in rural villages, the city of Mariupol, the large city of Kharkiv and occupied Donetsk. Participants observed that cities were growing at the expense of rural areas. The situation in Donetsk was bleak due to mass emigration, but some participants pointed to a recent increase in births. Overall, the participants acknowledged
the triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine, and the consequences of population decline, such as a shrinking labour force and rapid ageing. It is therefore vital for the international community to support Ukrainians in the
short-term and, post-war, to help with rebuilding and regenerating Ukraine to stop depopulation.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Brienna Perelli-Harris: orcid.org/0000-0001-8234-4007

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