A global transition to flash droughts under climate change
A global transition to flash droughts under climate change
Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash droughts have become the new normal because slow droughts may also increase. In this study, we show that drought intensification rates have sped up over subseasonal time scales and that there has been a transition toward more flash droughts over 74% of the global regions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events during the past 64 years. The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change. In the future, the transition is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.
187-191
Yuan, Xing
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Wang, Yumiao
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Ji, Peng
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Wu, Peili
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Sheffield, Justin
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Otkin, Jason A.
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14 April 2023
Yuan, Xing
cd29f8ca-815f-4694-9ea9-4489be804294
Wang, Yumiao
0cab0a83-926f-4204-acd5-45995a8755cf
Ji, Peng
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Wu, Peili
4bba4290-108f-4067-a0cd-4af76830e523
Sheffield, Justin
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Otkin, Jason A.
7b7288ca-7513-45e9-971b-2834576f044e
Yuan, Xing, Wang, Yumiao, Ji, Peng, Wu, Peili, Sheffield, Justin and Otkin, Jason A.
(2023)
A global transition to flash droughts under climate change.
Science, 380 (6641), .
(doi:10.1126/science.abn6301).
Abstract
Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash droughts have become the new normal because slow droughts may also increase. In this study, we show that drought intensification rates have sped up over subseasonal time scales and that there has been a transition toward more flash droughts over 74% of the global regions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events during the past 64 years. The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change. In the future, the transition is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.
Text
Global flash drought transition_final
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 17 February 2023
Published date: 14 April 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
Funding was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 41875105, the National Key R&D Program of China 2018YFA0606002 and 2022YFC3002803, the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for Distinguished Young Scholars BK20211540, and the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund.
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved.
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 477480
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/477480
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 03054db9-1dd9-4beb-888e-afdf6593ff9c
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Date deposited: 06 Jun 2023 17:18
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 07:44
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Contributors
Author:
Xing Yuan
Author:
Yumiao Wang
Author:
Peng Ji
Author:
Peili Wu
Author:
Jason A. Otkin
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