Expecting Brexit and UK migration: should I go?
Expecting Brexit and UK migration: should I go?
This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change.
Brexit referendum, UK migration
Di Iasio, Valentina
369de4bc-b90c-474a-a2f5-41702dc70b45
Wahba, Jackline
03ae9304-c329-40c6-9bfc-d91cfa9e7164
30 June 2023
Di Iasio, Valentina
369de4bc-b90c-474a-a2f5-41702dc70b45
Wahba, Jackline
03ae9304-c329-40c6-9bfc-d91cfa9e7164
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change.
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Brexit_paper__EER_FINAL CLEAN
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Accepted/In Press date: 28 April 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 3 June 2023
Published date: 30 June 2023
Keywords:
Brexit referendum, UK migration
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 477533
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/477533
ISSN: 0014-2921
PURE UUID: f92600fe-af1c-416c-b684-43326f838997
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Date deposited: 07 Jun 2023 17:16
Last modified: 12 Jul 2024 02:06
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Author:
Valentina Di Iasio
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