Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of the meteorological drought across China based on CMIP6
Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of the meteorological drought across China based on CMIP6
The characteristics of meteorological drought in different river basins in China have clear spatio-temporal differences and the difference between watersheds is also reflected in the influence mechanism of meteorological drought. This study investigated the meteorological drought risk under different future emission scenarios, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Furthermore, we explored the influence of precipitation and temperature on meteorological drought in different basins of China in the future. Meanwhile, the uncertainty associated with CMIP6 in different watersheds is also considered. In the future, the frequency of meteorological drought events mainly shows a decreasing trend, but the drought intensity and duration increase. In China, the rate of probability change in drought’s intensity was greater than drought duration and the probability distribution of drought characteristics is significantly different between the historical and the future periods. Under the low and medium emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP245), the Joint Recurrence Period of future drought intensity and duration increases and the Recurrence Period decreases in the western and north-eastern basins. Precipitation plays a major role in the meteorological drought, especially in the northeast and southeast basins of China.
CMIP6, copula, meteorological drought, return period, SC-PDSI, uncertainty
382-400
Zhang, Mengru
05e76651-c3a5-48d6-a963-f6e66a7c80f6
Yang, Xiaoli
c9b6c6a8-77b0-4c7e-b681-9b11d73e392d
Pan, Ming
10c372fa-0e0e-4eb5-b95b-06a8f9786fc8
Zhang, Linyan
f91869b1-181f-41ad-aa1f-75ccda464e92
Fang, Xiuqin
4224327a-1a16-43e5-a248-9f066825d726
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
1 March 2023
Zhang, Mengru
05e76651-c3a5-48d6-a963-f6e66a7c80f6
Yang, Xiaoli
c9b6c6a8-77b0-4c7e-b681-9b11d73e392d
Pan, Ming
10c372fa-0e0e-4eb5-b95b-06a8f9786fc8
Zhang, Linyan
f91869b1-181f-41ad-aa1f-75ccda464e92
Fang, Xiuqin
4224327a-1a16-43e5-a248-9f066825d726
Sheffield, Justin
dd66575b-a4dc-4190-ad95-df2d6aaaaa6b
Zhang, Mengru, Yang, Xiaoli, Pan, Ming, Zhang, Linyan, Fang, Xiuqin and Sheffield, Justin
(2023)
Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of the meteorological drought across China based on CMIP6.
Hydrology Research, 54 (3), .
(doi:10.2166/nh.2023.130).
Abstract
The characteristics of meteorological drought in different river basins in China have clear spatio-temporal differences and the difference between watersheds is also reflected in the influence mechanism of meteorological drought. This study investigated the meteorological drought risk under different future emission scenarios, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Furthermore, we explored the influence of precipitation and temperature on meteorological drought in different basins of China in the future. Meanwhile, the uncertainty associated with CMIP6 in different watersheds is also considered. In the future, the frequency of meteorological drought events mainly shows a decreasing trend, but the drought intensity and duration increase. In China, the rate of probability change in drought’s intensity was greater than drought duration and the probability distribution of drought characteristics is significantly different between the historical and the future periods. Under the low and medium emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP245), the Joint Recurrence Period of future drought intensity and duration increases and the Recurrence Period decreases in the western and north-eastern basins. Precipitation plays a major role in the meteorological drought, especially in the northeast and southeast basins of China.
Text
nh0540382
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Accepted/In Press date: 19 February 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 1 March 2023
Published date: 1 March 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
The authors express our gratitude to Ming Pan (The Scripps Institution of Oceanography) for helpful discussions, and we thank the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Program on Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for making available the meteorological station datasets and CMIP6 models datasets. The authors acknowledge the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China. We also thank the editors and reviewers for their efforts on this manuscript. This work was supported by the General Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U2243203, 52079036 and 42071040).
Keywords:
CMIP6, copula, meteorological drought, return period, SC-PDSI, uncertainty
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 477643
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/477643
ISSN: 1998-9563
PURE UUID: 6728f837-6b06-438e-8a30-3f74cc0c1750
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Date deposited: 12 Jun 2023 16:38
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 03:33
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Contributors
Author:
Mengru Zhang
Author:
Xiaoli Yang
Author:
Ming Pan
Author:
Linyan Zhang
Author:
Xiuqin Fang
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